The Australian dollar is leading the rebound among major currencies against the U.S. dollar (AUDUSD: +0.15%), which began after a sell-off in the U.S. bond market. Yields on 30-year Treasuries returned to 5% for the first time since mid-July, adding to global debt market pressure. AUDUSD is also supported by recent Australian data, reinforcing the RBA’s cautious stance.
After yesterday’s drop below 0.65, AUDUSD has returned above the 100-period exponential moving average on the H4 chart (EMA100, dark purple), which is currently providing strong support. A close above the EMA30 (light purple) could reignite the recent rally, pushing AUDUSD toward the upper boundary of the current consolidation. Source: xStation5
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What is shaping AUDUSD today?
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Australian GDP grew 0.6% q/q in Q2 2025, exceeding forecasts of 0.5% and up from 0.3% previously. Growth was driven by household consumption, supported by wage recovery, lower interest rates, and favorable weather. Weakness persists in both public and private investment, which could weigh on H2 readings.
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The data reinforce expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will remain cautious with further rate cuts. August’s 25 bp cut to 3.6% was precautionary, aimed at avoiding excessive economic slowdown (especially in the labor market) amid Donald Trump’s tariffs. The RBA indicated that inflation, which rose to 2.8% in July (the highest in a year), will guide future easing.
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The AUD is further supported by stronger-than-expected Caixin China Services PMI (53 vs forecast 52.4, previous 52.6), the fastest growth in 15 months. Business activity expanded mainly in tourism and entertainment, while employment remains under pressure as Chinese firms reduce staff to protect margins amid rising labor and material costs.
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