Economic calendar: BoC decision in the spotlight

• European indices set for flat opening
• Bank of Canada to decide on rates at 3:00 pm BST
• Puzzling slump in Turkish lira

European index futures point to a flat opening of the European cash session today. Markets are rather calm with no major moves that can be spotted on commodities, crypto or FX markets. However, there is one exception on the FX market - Turkish lira. TRY is slumping over 4% against USD and EUR, and the move is puzzling as it was not triggered by any kind news. Industrial metals trade under pressure after Chinese trade data showed a YoY drop in copper imports in January-May 2023 period.

The main event in the economic calendar for the day ahead is the rate decision from the Bank of Canada. Decision will be a close call - majority of economists expect rates to be left unchanged but money markets are 50-50 split between a hike and a hold. Having said that, any decision will be a surprise to some extent and is likely to trigger a jump in CAD volatility. Apart from the BoC decision, traders will tune in for trade balance data from North America as well as the EIA report on US oil inventories. EUR may see some moves during speeches from ECB members.

9:00 am BST - Italy, retail sales for April. Expected: 0.3% MoM. Previous: 0.0% MoM

1:30 pm BST - US, trade balance for April. Expected: -$75.3 billion. Previous: -$64.2 billion

1:30 pm BST - Canada, trade balance for April. Expected: C$0.5 billion. Previous: C$0.97 billion

3:00 pm BST - Bank of Canada rate decision

3:30 pm BST - EIA report on US oil inventories

• Oil inventories. Expected: 1.5 mb (API: -1.71 mb)
• Gasoline inventories. Expected: 1.6 mb (API: +2.42 mb)
• Distillate inventories. Expected: 2.1 mb (API: +4.50 mb)

Central bankers' speeches

• 8:50 am BST - ECB De Guindos
• 9:30 am BST - ECB Knot
• 10:10 am BST - ECB Panetta
• 1:00 pm BST - ECB Vujcic
• 2:00 pm BST - NBP Chairman Glapiński