- The highly anticipated SEC decision turned out to be favorable for Bitcoin, with the regulator allowing applications from funds applying for a spot ETF on Bitcoin, but the price of the largest cryptocurrency was unable to sustain the upward reaction around $47,000 and has now slipped back to the $45,700 area.
- Ethereum's near 8% rally has been partially erased, and altcoins are trading in mixed sentiment, with Intercomp losing nearly 9%. Bloomberg expects about $4 billion in inflows soon after the start of trading, but that hasn't stopped investors from taking profits
- Financial markets are preparing for the most important publication of the day, which will be inflation data from the US (1:30 PM GMT). Futures, on the main indices in Europe, are gaining around 0.5%. A relatively small appreciation is also seen among indices futures on Wall Street. Sentiments during the Asian session were mostly positive
- For U.S. CPI y/y, the median forecast of economists is for an increase to 3.2% from 3.1% previously. In a survey of 48 economists, the highest forecast is 3.6% and the lowest is 3.1%.
- For CPI m/m, the forecast suggests a 0.2% increase from the previous 0.1% (the highest estimate is 0.4%, the lowest is 0.1%)
- Wells Fargo expects the CPI report to show a slowdown in inflation, more or less in line with the trend, which will give the FOMC the opportunity to start cutting rates, in June. The bank estimates CPI m/m growth of 0.2% in nominal terms and 0.3% in core terms. Energy prices were more stable last month, but disinflation in core goods is likely to continue
- BlackRock expects commodity prices to lead a consistent decline in the U.S. CPI in 2024, although supply constraints may again suggest a 'rollercoaster' in the months ahead
- The Fed's Williams stressed that it is too early to conclude a win over inflation, and that the Fed's mandate for rate cuts will give 100% certainty of inflation at the 2% target. However, he signaled that policy is restrictive and this year the Federal Reserve must think about both 'normalizing' it and ending the balance sheet reduction (QT) program.
- Ratings agency S&P forecasts only moderate economic growth for the US in 2024.
- The US dollar is losing slightly today, within 0.1%. EURUSD gains 0.12%, while USDJPY slightly erases its recent rally by 0.12%
- Oil Brent and WTI gains 0.8% and 0.9% respectively. Gas prices are up 0.5%
- Precious metals are trading higher. Palladium gains 1.7%, gold 0.5%, with silver contracts up 0.7%
- Among Asian benchmarks, Chinese index contracts are the strongest gainers, adding more than 1.5%. However the cash session was dominated once again by benchmarks from Japan, the Topix and Nikkei 225
- Nikkei 225 contracts gained more than 1.2% today. Managers at Aizawa Securities pointed out that the recent rally in Japanese indices suggests that both individual investors at home and foreign investors have changed their view to an even more positive one, "There is also a sense that investors who were late to the market are buying to keep up with the rise in indices."
- Hong Kong stocks have slowly ended their biggest downward streak since August. Global investment firm Loomis Sayles stressed that it is increasingly optimistic about the country's China real estate market, saying recent debt restructuring deals are having an effect
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