3:00 PM BST US Leading Index Change MoM (September): -0.5% actual vs -0.3% estimated, -0.2% previous (revised to -0.3%)
The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined 0.5% in September 2024 to 99.7, following a 0.3% decline in August. The LEI fell 2.6% over the six-month period from March to September 2024. Weakness in factory new orders, yield curve inversion, declining building permits, and tepid consumer outlook contributed to the decline. The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) increased slightly by 0.1% in September to 112.9, with positive contributions from payroll employment, personal income, and manufacturing and trade sales offsetting a decline in industrial production. The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) declined 0.3% to 118.9 in September. The LEI's continued weakness signals uncertainty for economic activity, with The Conference Board expecting moderate growth at the end of 2024 and early 2025. The press release notes that the LEI signaled recession again in September, but the economy may only slow ahead. Notably, the actual US Leading Index Change MoM for September was -0.2%, better than the estimated -0.3% and unchanged from the previous month's -0.2%.
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EURUSD showed a muted reaction following the data release. Initially, the USD ticked higher, but it later depreciated against the EUR. Currently, EURUSD remains in a downtrend that began in October, with bearish sentiment prevailing despite brief moments of strength for the euro. Technical indicators continue to signal weakness, aligning with the broader downtrend.
Source: xStation
