BREAKING: USD muted after Leading Economic Index shows lower than expected data

3:00 PM BST US Leading Index Change MoM (April): -1.0% actual vs -0.9% estimated, -0.7% previous (revised to -0.8%)

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined 1.0% in April 2025 to 99.4, after falling 0.8% in March (revised downward). The LEI fell 2.0% over the six-month period ending April 2025, matching the previous six-month decline rate.

"The U.S. LEI registered its largest monthly decline since March 2023," noted Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager at The Conference Board. Consumer pessimism, declining building permits, and reduced manufacturing hours contributed to the drop. Despite warning signals, the decline was not sufficient to trigger a recession alert. The Conference Board forecasts 1.6% US GDP growth in 2025, down from 2.8% in 2024.

The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) edged up 0.1% to 114.8 in April, while the Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased 0.3% to 119.3, reversing its previous six-month decline.

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