- The situation in the stock market remains mixed today, despite a positive start to the session, with the US500 crossing the 7,000-point level. Currently, shortly before 8:00 PM CET, the US500 is gaining 0.2%, similar to the US100. By far the biggest loser is the US200, declining 1.4%, which may be a reaction to reduced expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- A mixed situation occurred in European markets. The DE40 is losing 0.4%, while the FRA40 is rising 0.6%. The UK100 is rising as much as 1%.
- Today’s most anticipated event was the publication of the delayed NFP report. The range of expectations was from minus several thousand to as much as 150,000. Ultimately, with a consensus around 70,000, we received a reading of 130,000, which brought a significant reaction in the form of a strengthening dollar and rising yields.
- Private employment growth amounted to as much as 172,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%. It is worth noting, however, that the job growth was almost one-sided and concerned the healthcare sector. Over 40,000 jobs were liquidated in the public sector.
- In addition, final QCEW data regarding the actual state of employment was published. Ultimately, for the 12-month period to March 2025, employment was lower by 898,000 jobs, slightly less than initially indicated. Nonetheless, the average employment growth after preliminary adjustments for the rest of 2025 is just 15,000, compared to approximately 50,000 previously.
- EURUSD fell by nearly 0.5% today, hitting a level of 1.1830 along with diminishing chances for a Fed interest rate cut in the first half of this year. Currently, most losses have been erased, but the pair remains below 1.19.
- Gold and silver are gaining 1% and 4% today, respectively. Volatility remains high, but the increases were stronger before the NFP report.
- The market currently prices that the first full rate cut by the Fed in 2026 will take place in July. Previously, June was priced in. Citi has changed its expectations for the first cut from March to April.
- Crude oil remains high around 65 USD per barrel due to uncertainty regarding Iran and the USA. Iran does not want to negotiate on its ballistic missile program and is only able to negotiate on nuclear issues.
- The DOE report showed a strong increase in oil inventories at around 8.5 million barrels, although the API report yesterday indicated a higher increase of 13 million.
- Bitcoin is falling by more than 2% today and is recording levels below 67,000 USD.
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