The RBA raised interest rates today by 25 basis points, in line with market expectations. The main rate is currently at 2.85%. The RBA was one of the first central banks to decide on a pivot which is a reduction in the pace of interest rate increases. On the other hand, the RBA indicates that it will not hit its inflation target by 2024, and inflation should peak at 8% this year. RBA president Lowe points out that today there was a conversation about the consequences and costs of not raising interest rates. According to the RBA, households suffer severely from high interest rates and high inflation.
We are probably seeing an increase in divergence between the central bank of Australia and New Zealand. In the case of New Zealand, interest rates are expected to reach as high as 5% next year, while in Australia it is not very likely that rates reach 4%. Additionally, China's weakness is not a good sign for AUD. Therefore, the AUDNZD pair continues to decline significantly. The currency pair is already below the 1.10 level and is heading for a 50.0 retracement of the last significant upward wave. The key long-term support level is around 1.05.
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