Bitcoin rises over 1% today, breaking above $117,000, driven by expectations of a more dovish shift in the Federal Reserve’s stance. The dollar has weakened, and markets are pricing in another 50 bps of rate cuts this year along with further easing next year. Trump’s nominee, Miran, suggested that rates should fall to 3% this year, offering some guidance as to what U.S. monetary policy could look like in the coming year.
- This implies that global money supply (M2) will likely increase, while assets negatively correlated with the dollar — including Bitcoin — should benefit. It’s also one of the reasons why the market is not worried about a looming “end of the crypto bull run,” which, judging by previous cycles, would normally be expected in late autumn this year.
- Dovish signals from the Fed, combined with a gradually (rather than sharply) weakening labor market, may support inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have recently seen renewed institutional interest. On the other hand, any declines on Wall Street could once again put Bitcoin under pressure. If U.S. labor market data were to point to a sharp and sudden slowdown, we could see at least a short-term “risk-off” reaction across markets, driven by reduced odds of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy.
Bitcoin (D1 chart)
Looking at the chart, we can see that the price has been climbing slowly in recent days, holding above the 50-day EMA (orange line). The base case scenario for now is a test of the $120,000 area, where heavier supply previously emerged.
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Source: xStation5
