Cocoa falls 3% despite the lowest ICE inventories since May 📉

Cocoa futures are falling more than 3% today after rising on Monday to their highest level in over a week, supported by weather disruptions in West Africa that are threatening crop yields and tightening near-term supply.

• In the Ivory Coast, heavy rainfall has prevented farmers from working in the fields and slowed the movement of beans to ports. Meanwhile, in Ghana and Nigeria, dry conditions are damaging crops.
• Analysts warn that the combination of excessive rainfall and drought risk increases uncertainty for the main harvest season, which begins in October.
• ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in U.S. ports fell to 2.09 million bags — the lowest level since May — highlighting tightness in the supply chain.
• Exports from the Ivory Coast have slowed. Since the start of the marketing year, farmers have shipped 1.82 million tonnes of cocoa, up 5.8% year-on-year but well below the blistering 35% growth rate recorded in December.
• The so-called mid-crop in the Ivory Coast has also suffered from late rains that reduced pod development, resulting in weaker yields. Production is forecast at 400,000 tonnes this year, down 9% from 440,000 tonnes a year earlier.

Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, is also expected to see lower output. The country’s Cocoa Association forecasts 2025/26 production at 305,000 tonnes, an 11% decline from the 344,000 tonnes projected for this year.

Source: xStation5