Coffee falls for the third straight session amid improving weather in Brazil and Vietnam ☕️ 📉

Key takeaways

Coffee extends losses for the third straight session amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam.
Ongoing U.S.-Brazil trade talks raise hopes for potential tariff relief on Brazilian coffee.

Key takeaways

Coffee extends losses for the third straight session amid improving weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam.
Ongoing U.S.-Brazil trade talks raise hopes for potential tariff relief on Brazilian coffee.

Arabica coffee futures are falling for the third straight session (COFFEE: -2.1%), reaching their lowest level in 10 days.

The correction in coffee prices is mainly driven by the latest forecasts of rainfall in Brazil, which have eased concerns about a prolonged drought and potential supply constraints. Positive news also came from Vietnam, the world’s second-largest coffee producer, where tropical storm Fengshen is expected to weaken. Greater confidence in this season’s harvest has therefore led to profit-taking, further encouraged by record-high 2025 coffee prices — the contract had only traded higher once this year, in February, reaching 437.

Additional relief came from reports on ongoing US-Brazil trade negotiations. President Lula summed up his meeting with Trump yesterday, saying that “there should soon be no more problems in trade with the U.S.” Brazilian negotiators are primarily seeking to have coffee included on the list of duty-free products in exchange for concessions on selected U.S. goods.

Technically, coffee prices have fallen below the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA10, yellow), finding support near the EMA30 (light purple), which aligns with the 50.0 Fibonacci retracement of the latest upward wave. The correction has brought the RSI down from overbought to a neutral level around 50, but continued improvement in Brazilian weather could deepen selling pressure, potentially pushing prices below EMA30 toward the 78.6 Fibo support zone. Source: xStation5

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