Copper hits lowest level since late July 📉 Markets price in AI concerns and a shift in US trade policy?

Copper prices (COPPER) fell to their lowest level since July, with LME prices briefly dropping around 1.5% to approximately $13,600 per tonne. At the same time, the market is beginning to price in weaker support from AI infrastructure investment and a lower probability of aggressive US trade policies, which had previously contributed to the US copper price premium.

The Democrats taking control of Congress has reduced expectations for high tariffs on copper imports, weakening one of the key factors that had supported US copper prices.
A smaller premium in the US market could encourage some supply to be redirected back to global markets, increasing metal availability outside the United States.
Additional pressure is coming from the sell-off in technology stocks and growing concerns that the pace of investment in data centres and AI infrastructure could slow.
Tighter financial conditions are also weighing on industrial metals, increasing pressure on the more cyclical segments of the commodities market.

At the same time, the physical market remains tight: copper premiums in China have risen above 2,500 yuan per tonne, reaching their highest level since the data series began in 2015. This creates a clear divergence between weaker macroeconomic and political sentiment and still-strong demand for physical metal, which could limit the scale of further declines.

COPPER Chart (H1 Timeframe)

Source: xStation5

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