- U.S. stock indexes are paring back earlier gains. The United States announced an additional $70 billion investment in artificial intelligence, along with plans to ease export restrictions on advanced AI chips — allowing U.S. companies to resume GPU shipments to China. Following gains in AI stocks, the Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 0.3%, outperforming major benchmarks like the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), which loses 0,7% today.
- Today marks the official start of the core earnings season, with banking giants posting strong results. All major banks beat EPS and revenue expectations, but market reactions have been mixed, suggesting some profit-taking as investors weigh the future path of Fed policy.
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JPMorgan Chase reported EPS of $5.25 vs. an expected $4.47, with revenue at $45.68 billion, beating the forecast of $44.05 billion. The bank also raised its full-year net interest income guidance. However, the stock is down just under 1% intraday.
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Wells Fargo delivered EPS of $1.60 vs. $1.41 expected and revenue of $20.82 billion, up 1% year-over-year. Despite the beat, the bank lowered its interest income outlook for 2025 and shares are down 5.5% during the session.
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Citigroup posted a strong EPS of $1.96, topping expectations of $1.61, with revenue up 8% year-over-year to $21.67 billion, driven by record equity trading performance and a rebound in investment banking. Shares are up 3.3%.
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BlackRock hit a record $12.5 trillion in assets under management, with Q2 EPS of $12.05 (vs. $10.67 expected) and revenue up 13% year-over-year to $5.42 billion. Despite the strong results, shares are down nearly 6%.
- Shares of copper producers like Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper are among the weakest performers today. Morgan Stanley downgraded both, citing concerns that Trump’s proposed 50% tariffs on copper could significantly curb demand.
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USD/JPY surged to its highest level since early April, testing the 149 mark, despite an initially negative dollar reaction to the CPI report.
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U.S. CPI inflation came in slightly higher than expected at 2.7% year-over-year for June (vs. 2.6% expected and 2.4% in May). Core inflation matched forecasts at 2.9% YoY, and monthly core rose 0.2% MoM — aligning with the Fed’s disinflation trajectory.
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Canada's CPI also met expectations, rising to 1.9% year-over-year, briefly strengthening the Canadian dollar. However, USD/CAD has since rebounded above 1.37.
- Although today's CPI reading does not significantly raise expectations for a Fed rate cut, it keeps the door open for a potential September pivot. The data highlighted growing inflation contributions from energy utilities and tariffs.
- Oil prices continue to decline, following remarks from Donald Trump indicating that the U.S. will resume arms deliveries to Ukraine. Trump also threatened 100% retaliatory tariffs on Russia if it fails to begin meaningful peace negotiations within 50 days. These proposed sanctions could theoretically tighten global oil supply from Russia, adding complexity to the market outlook.
- Nvidia and AMD shares are sharply higher today, up 4% and 6%, respectively. The gains follow news that U.S. authorities will soon grant export licenses allowing shipments of advanced AI chips to China. Nvidia is expected to resume sales of its H20 AI chips to Chinese customers.
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Cocoa futures plummeted over 6%, reacting to a surprise 22% drop in cocoa processing volume in Malaysia — a clear sign of weakening demand in the global cocoa market.
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Bitcoin pulled back from recent highs, falling from $119,000 to $117,000, as cryptocurrency sentiment cooled slightly following recent strong gains.
Source: xStation5
