Daily Summary: Dow Jones hits record highs, while gold and silver rally on hopes for a US–Iran deal

📈 Stock Market

• The positive mood during the US session faded, especially after a rather strong opening.

• At the time of writing this report, the Dow Jones is gaining over 0.8%, breaking records and remaining the only bright spot in the US cash market.

• The S&P 500 gave back some of its gains after initial increases and is currently hovering around zero.

• The situation looks significantly worse for the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which is down about 0.4%.

• The indexes are primarily weighed down by shares of SpaceX and AMD, which reported relatively strong quarterly results, but the market expected better outcomes.

• On the flip side, Nvidia is gaining as the market reacted positively to news about SpaceX utilizing its AI technology.

• The current earnings season should be considered very strong, with the vast majority of companies reporting results that beat market forecasts.

• After today's session, SanDisk and Western Digital Corporation will report their financial results.

🌍 Geopolitics

• Iran and Oman are continuing talks regarding the creation of a safe route for ships through the Strait of Hormuz, although an agreement remains uncertain.

• According to a Persian Gulf state representative, the chances of reaching a deal by Friday are around 50%.

• Iran reported that coordinates for the proposed route have been agreed upon, which could operate temporarily for 2–4 months, and a joint statement from both countries is being finalized.

• Donald Trump assessed that the situation around Iran is "developing very well," suggesting progress in negotiations aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

• According to the US President, negotiations are heading in the right direction, and details may be presented in the near future.

• At the same time, reports suggest that the US and Iran remain in indirect contact, though Tehran emphasizes that it is not currently engaging in direct talks with Washington.

• Tehran notes that it received messages from Washington regarding its readiness to return to previous commitments.

• However, Iran claims that merely restoring US commitments will not be enough to fully open the Strait of Hormuz, and negotiations continue in an atmosphere of deep distrust.

• The new route agreed upon with Oman is intended to be a temporary solution, rather than a complete end to the conflict.

📊 Macroeconomics

• The ADP report on private-sector employment in the US showed a clear slowdown in the labor market.

• In July, private companies added only 44k jobs, while around 75k were expected (following a downwardly revised 95k in June).

• The largest employment gains were recorded in the education and health care sectors, whereas weaker results appeared in hospitality, food services, and parts of manufacturing.

• The data suggests that the US labor market is gradually losing momentum, but does not yet point to a sharp deterioration — companies are still rarely laying off workers, they are simply hiring more slowly.

• US services sector data showed that the economy maintains a solid pace of growth.

• The stronger reading suggests that demand in the US economy remains robust, particularly in services, which account for the largest portion of US GDP.

• The ISM Services PMI also confirmed the sector's resilience, although the result was slightly weaker than expected: the index stood at 54.1 pts. versus the forecasted 54.5 pts.

• Growth was mainly driven by new orders (rising to 57.2 pts.), but costs remain an issue — the prices paid index stayed above 70 pts., pointing to persistent inflationary pressure.

• At the same time, the employment component weakened, suggesting that companies remain cautious regarding recruitment.

• For markets, this represents a mixed signal: the US economy shows no signs of a sharp slowdown (which is positive for equities), but a strong services sector and high prices could make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates quickly.

• Combined with the weaker ADP report, the market gets a picture of an economy that is still growing but beginning to gradually slow down — which could be a favorable "soft landing" scenario if inflation continues to fall.

🛢️ Commodities

• Ongoing peace talks are directly impacting crude oil prices (Brent), which currently sit below the $80 level.

🥇 Precious Metals

• A very positive mood is observed in the precious metals market.

• The price of gold rose above $4,200 per ounce, as investors began to assume that a potential US–Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could limit the risk of rising oil prices and inflation.

• Silver is gaining over 4% and is sitting at the $62 level.

🪙 Cryptocurrencies

• Positive sentiment is also evident in the crypto market.

• Bitcoin is gaining about 0.6% and is trading around $64,500.

• Ethereum is gaining over 1% and is testing the $1,900 level.