Daily summary: Wall Street and EURUSD rise ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision 🗽 Oil gains

The European session was broadly positive. Germany’s DAX edged lower, but the UK’s FTSE 100 rose nearly 0.6%, helped by its meaningful weighting in commodity and metals-related stocks. One of the largest European companies reported earnings report after the bell. French holding LVMH reported Q4 2025 earnings, with total 2025 net profit falling by 13% YoY to 10.9 billion, but maintained 13 EUR dividend per share; the company stock almost didn't react to earnings report. LVMH remains cautiously optimistic amid geopolitical uncertainties. The luxury sector giant reported total revenue of €80 billion for the 2025 year, demonstrating significant growth over the past decade despite a 1% YoY decline in organic growth. In the second half of the year, the organic growth turned positive at 1%
Wall Street sentiment is optimistic today as markets await tomorrow’s Fed decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference. Big Tech and semiconductor stocks are leading the upside. Weakness is visible in software, where Oracle is down nearly 4%, and in insurers, where bellwether UnitedHealth Group is seeing a roughly 20% sell-off.
According to FactSet data so far (as of January 23, with 13% of S&P 500 companies having reported), 75% have beaten net profit expectations and about 70% have topped revenue forecasts. S&P 500 year-over-year earnings growth is currently running around 8%, but after Big Tech reports, that figure is likely to rise materially, potentially toward roughly 15% YoY.
U.S. consumer confidence data from the Conference Board disappointed, falling to 84.5, the lowest level in 12 years. The market had expected 90.7 after 94.2 in December. The assessment of current conditions also missed forecasts, while future expectations declined almost twice as much as anticipated.
U.S. housing data surprised to the upside. Home prices rose 0.6% m/m versus 0.3% expected and 0.4% previously, while prices in the 20 largest U.S. metro areas (Case-Shiller 20 index) increased 1.4% y/y versus 1.2% expected and 1.3% previously. In addition, the weekly ADP employment change came in at 7.5k jobs versus 8k previously.
Precious metals sentiment remains constructive. Gold is holding near $5,090 per ounce and has quickly regained its footing after yesterday’s pullback. Silver has retreated to around $107 per ounce, while Citi analysts published a report projecting the metal could climb to $150 per ounce.
Oil is rising toward nearly $65 per barrel, reaching levels not seen since mid-January. The market is still closely watching developments in the Middle East, and after the U.S. session investors will focus on API inventory data. Natural gas is attempting to move higher again after the rollover; NOAA forecasts continue to point to below-average temperatures along the U.S. East Coast in early February.
Cryptocurrency sentiment remains weak. Bitcoin is still trading near $87.5k and is struggling to regain the $90k level.
In a brief comment today, Donald Trump pointed to positive outcomes from three-way talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States, suggesting negotiations may be approaching a first potentially meaningful breakthrough. Recent media reports have indicated the U.S. could be willing to offer Ukraine expanded security guarantees in exchange for Kyiv agreeing to cede the Donbas region to Russia.

Source: xStation5

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Daily summary: Wall Street and EURUSD rise ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision 🗽 Oil gains

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