Divergence between Dollar and TNOTE: Implications for EUR/USD

This week will be particularly important for the EUR/USD, as we will have several macroeconomic data releases regarding the US and the FOMC decision on Wednesday. The weak performance of the equities has been benefiting the US dollar, which has managed to exert pressure on the euro.

However, on the daily chart, we can see that the price has been able to slow down the downward movement near the lower channel boundary. Furthermore, the price has already rejected the bottom of the channel twice. If the price continues to be traded above the channel, the short-term upward movement should be considered.

Daily time frame chart. Source: xStation 5

In the chart of the US dollar index and TNOTE, we can see that the divergence continues. Furthermore, we observe that the upward momentum in the US dollar index is beginning to lose strength, which could support the recovery of the EUR/USD pair

TNOTE and USDIDX Daily time frame chart. Source: xStation 5

Currency Strength. Source: currency-strength.com

Henrique Tomé,
Analyst Portugal

21 July 2026, 7:02 PM

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