Economic calendar: A set of preliminary PMIs

Summary:

• Preliminary PMIs from European economies as well as the US
• NY Empire State for December
• A few central bankers to speak during the day

8:15/8:30/9:00/9:30 am GMT - Preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs from France/Germany/Eurozone/UK for December: There is no doubt that it’s gonna be the most important set of data scheduled for Monday. First and foremost, we have Eurozone countries from where Christine Lagarde saw a dose of improving data when she spoke during her first post-ECB meeting press conference last week. Thus, a rise in sentiment could encourage other market participants to begin sharing a cautiously upbeat view of Lagarde. Overall, a slight improvement compared to November is expected. Secondly, the UK seems to be a bit closer to orderly Brexit following the general election’s outcome. Therefore, market participants could now more eagerly look at economic data to assess whether the BoE could tighten policy in the foreseeable future. In the UK a tiny pick-up is also anticipated.

1:00 pm GMT - Polish core CPI for November and current account for October: Polish core inflation is projected to have accelerated in November to 2.5% YoY, though a move toward 2.6% could also be on the cards. At the same time, we will be offered the current account data for October showing whether consumers bumped up their spending or rather decided to save additional cash flowing from income tax cuts and social programs.

1:30 pm GMT - NY Empire State for December: The index is one of the most important to watch when it comes to regional Fed indices because it is released first, showing what should be expected in terms of regional manufacturing sectors’ performance. The index is expected to increase to 4 from 2.9.

2:45 pm GMT - Preliminary PMI from the US: The Fed seems to be done as for any moves in rates during the next twelve months, as one could infer from the latest meeting. Anyway, the Fed does not assume any material economic slowdown for 2020 which created a downside risk for the greenback. For that reason any readings coming from the world’s largest economy should be thoroughly scrutinized. The index for manufacturing is forecast to stay at 52.6 while the index for services is expected to rise to 52 from 51.6.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 12:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Lane

• 1:00 pm GMT - ECB’s de Guindos

• 11:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Kashakri