Economic calendar: ECB decision in the spotlight

9:01 AM 16 March 2023

European indices open higher after Credit Suisse takes steps to improve liquidity
DAX jumps over 200 points at session launch
ECB to face a dilemma today

European stock markets indices launched today's cash session higher. Credit Suisse announced steps to boost its liquidity position, like exercising an option to borrow additional 50 billion CHF from Swiss National Bank, and it has eased concerns over potential collapse of this systematically important bank. DAX launched today's session around 200 points above yesterday's cash close.

Banking sector will remain in the center of attention today. The European Central Bank is set to announce a rate decision at 1:15 pm GMT today and it will face a big dilemma. A 50 basis point rate hike was almost fully priced in last week and ECB officials, including ECB Lagarde, also strongly hinted that another half percentage point move is coming. However, some say that ECB may opt for a smaller hike or even no change to the level of interest rates given recent turmoil in the banking sector. Having said that, ECB will have to decide whether firm actions on inflation are worth risking the banking sector crisis. Money markets are currently 50-50 split between 25 and 50 basis point rate hikes.

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Apart from the ECB meeting, traders will also be offered wholesale trade data from Canada as well as housing market and jobless claims data from the United States. EIA will release a report on change in US natural gas stockpiles in the evening.

9:00 am GMT - Italy, CPI inflation for February. Expected: 9.2% YoY. Previous: 10.0% YoY

12:30 pm GMT - Canada, wholesale trade for January. Expected: 3.0% MoM. Previous: -0.8% MoM

12:30 pm GMT - US housing market data for February.

Building permits. Expected: 1335k. Previous: 1339k
Housing starts. Expected: 1310k. Previous: 1309k

12:30 pm GMT - US, jobless claims. Expected: 205k. Previous: 211k

1:15 pm GMT - ECB rate decision

2:30 pm GMT - US, EIA report on natural gas storage. Expected: -61 bcf. Previous: -84 bcf

Central bankers' speeches

1:45 pm GMT - ECB President Lagarde (post-meeting press conference)

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