Economic Calendar - Will the ECB Spring a Surprise?

Today's macroeconomic calendar is rather extensive. Already during the Asian trading session, we received solid PMI readings from Australia and a decline in Japan's PMI below 50 points. The European session will be dictated by preliminary PMI index readings. Nevertheless, the key highlight of today's session is the ECB's decision. Expectations point to interest rates being held, but in a period of uncertainty, an indication that this is not the end of rate cuts cannot be ruled out. In the afternoon, we will see preliminary PMI indices from the US, real estate data, and natural gas inventories.

It is also worth remembering that the US earnings season is ongoing. Today, attention is primarily drawn to Intel, but we will also see results from companies such as Honeywell, Blackstone, and Nasdaq.

Macro Calendar (all times BST):

• 08:15 France - Preliminary Services PMI for July (Forecast: 49.6; Previous: 49.6)

• 08:15 France - Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July (Forecast: 48.4; Previous: 48.1)

• 08:30 Germany - Preliminary Services PMI for July (Forecast: 50; Previous: 49.7)

• 08:30 Germany - Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July (Forecast: 49.3; Previous: 49)

• 09:00 Eurozone - Preliminary Services PMI for July (Forecast: 50.8; Previous: 50.5)

• 09:00 Eurozone - Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July (Forecast: 49.8; Previous: 49.5)

• 09:30 UK - Preliminary Services PMI for July (Forecast: 52.9; Previous: 52.8)

• 09:30 UK - Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July (Forecast: 48; Previous: 47.7)

• 12:00 Turkey - Interest Rate Decision (Forecast: 43.5%; Previous: 46.0%)

• 13:15 Eurozone - Interest Rate Decision - Deposit Facility Rate (Forecast: 2.0%; Previous: 2.0%)

• 13:30 Canada - Retail Sales for May (Forecast: -1.0% m/m; Previous: 0.3% m/m)

• 13:45 Eurozone - Press Conference following Decision

• 14:45 USA - Preliminary Services PMI for July (Forecast: 53; Previous: 52.9)

• 14:45 USA - Preliminary Manufacturing PMI for July (Forecast: 52.5; Previous: 52.9)

• 15:00 USA - New Home Sales for June (Forecast: 651k; Previous: 623k)

• 15:30 USA - Natural Gas Storage Change (Forecast: 28 bcf; Previous: 46 bcf)