📉EURUSD loses 0.3%

EUR/USD is down more than 0.3% today, retreating toward key technical support levels after a string of strong US macro releases, with initial jobless claims falling below 200k. The robust print means the labor market—expected to be the US “Achilles’ heel” in 2026 is once again being viewed as highly resilient.

What’s more, today’s US data point to a broadly USD-supportive scenario. Both export and import prices rose month-on-month, while the regional activity gauges from Philadelphia and New York significantly exceeded expectations. Comments from Fed officials Bostic and Goolsbee also suggest the Fed is increasingly viewing the labor market as stable, which could reduce pressure for rate cuts.

US Export Prices m/m: 0.5% (forecast: 0%, prior: 0%)
US Import Prices m/m: 0.4% (forecast: -0.2%, prior: 0%)
US Initial Jobless Claims: 198k (forecast: 215k, prior: 208k, revised: 207k)
US Continued Jobless Claims: 1.884M (forecast: 1.897M, prior: 1.914M, revised: 1.903M)
Philly Fed Business Index (US): 12.6 (forecast: -1.35, prior: -10.2, revised: -8.8)
NY Fed Manufacturing Index (Empire State): 7.7 (forecast: 1, prior: -3.90, revised: -3.7)

EUR/USD is easing back toward 1.16, with the downside move slowing near the potentially important 200-period EMA (red line, 1.157), a level where the market has reversed higher twice recently.

Source: xStation5

The US Dollar Index futures (USDIDX) are climbing to levels not seen since the first half of December, retracing part of the sharper late-2025 decline. The index has posted a string of gains over the past couple of weeks, interrupted only by brief pullbacks.

Source: xStation5

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