MACRO: Strong US economic data

• Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest in Nearly 3 Months
• US Durable Goods Orders Beat Forecast at 6-Month High

Today investors were served with several important macroeconomic readings from the US, including weekly jobless claims and durable goods orders. First-time jobless claims dropped to 730,000 for the week ended Feb. 20, the lowest in three months, compared to analysts expectations of 820,000. California and Ohio reported the biggest declines as number of new Covid-19cases fell and the pace of vaccinations accelerate. 

However, some caution should be exercised with today's data. The recent wave of cold temperatures may have prevented many unemployed from registering their applications, as many offices were closed due to energy shortages. Moreover, according to today's data still approximately 19.04 milion  Americans are claiming some form of unemployment benefit. It is an increase of 701k compared to last week. This means that the labour market recovery process may take longer than initially expected.

Total number of Americans claiming some form of government aid returned back above 19 million last week. Source: Bloomberg via ZeroHedge.

Meanwhile, durable goods orders jumped by 3.4% in January, compared to market consensus of a 1.0% increase. It is the 9th consecutive gain in durable goods orders and the biggest since July, mainly driven by a 7.8 % rise in orders for transportation. Excluding transportation, new orders increased 1.4 % and excluding defense, new orders increased 2.3 %. Fed’s favored measure - orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, which is seen as a barometer of business investment, increased 0.5 %, while December's data was revised up from 0.7% growth to 1.5%.  In previous years, this measure was significantly related to corporate investment, therefore  Fed is paying close attention to this category, and points to very robust growth.