Morning Wrap (14.07.2025)

Wall Street ended Friday in the red (S&P 500: -0.3%, Nasdaq: -0.2%, DJIA: -0.6%, Russell 2000: -1.3%), and the latest news regarding tariffs is generating further declines in futures for both U.S. (US500: -0.55%) and European indices (EU50: -0.85%).

Donald Trump announced on Saturday 30% tariffs on the European Union and Mexico. The President of the European Commission signaled readiness for retaliation but emphasized the desire to reach a better deal through negotiations. The EU also postponed the retaliatory measures announced in April from July 14 to August 1. Trump stated last night that talks with the EU are ongoing.

In Asia and the Pacific, cautious optimism is observed. While the broad MSCI Asia Pacific Index is slightly down (-0.1%), major regional exchanges are seeing gains. China's HSCEI is up (+0.5%), South Korea’s Kospi (+0.8%), Shanghai SE Composite (+0.4%), and Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+0.05%) are also rising. India’s Nifty 50, however, is down (-0.3%).

The biggest gains are among companies involved in silver production and processing, riding the wave of rising commodity prices. Optimism is also visible among Chinese robotics companies following reports that Initree and AgiBot won a 124 million yuan contract to supply humanoid robots.

Japan’s industrial production fell by 0.1% in May compared to the previous month (April: +0.5% m/m) and extended year-over-year declines (-2.4%, previously: -1.8%).

The Bank of Japan is likely to raise its inflation forecast for the current fiscal year (currently at 2.2%), mainly due to strong pressure from food prices, according to media reports today.

On the forex market: the new week opens with a rebound in the U.S. dollar (USDIDX: +0.13), which is strengthening against all G10 currencies. The largest corrections are seen in the New Zealand dollar (NZDUSD: -0.37%) and Scandinavian currencies (USDSEK, USDNOK: +0.35%). The Japanese yen (USDJPY: +0.03%) and Canadian dollar (USDCAD: +0.07%) are showing relative resilience. EURUSD is down 0.2% to 1.167.

Gold is up a modest 0.05% to $3,356 per ounce, while silver continues its bullish rally, rising another 1.45% to $38.96 per ounce. Platinum and palladium futures are seeing corrections (-0.6%).

Brent and WTI crude oil are up 0.2% and 0.16% respectively, while TTF natural gas futures are down 0.1%.

Cryptocurrency euphoria continues: Bitcoin is up 2.6% to $122,230, Ethereum adds 1.6% to $3,040, and gains are also seen in Ripple futures (+5.75%) and Dogecoin (+5.5%).