Market Wrap: Energy Stocks Retreat as Hopes for End to Iran War Grow 🌍 (10.03.2026)

Markets:

• Strong optimism in Europe continues to gain momentum, with the EU50 contract currently up 0.2%. The largest gains are seen in the Spanish IBEX 35 (SPA35: +2.2%) and the Polish WIG20 (W20: +1.9%). The German DAX (DE40) contract is gaining approximately 0.35%, while the FRA40 and SUI20 are slightly in the red (approx. -0.05%).

• Among sectors, the only clear laggards are energy commodity companies (Shell: -1.1%; BP: -1.7%), which are correcting following Trump’s comments suggesting de-escalation in Iran and the return of Brent crude contracts below $100 (currently at $93).

• TD Cowen downgraded Novo Nordisk's rating to "Hold" due to concerns regarding semaglutide patents. Analysts pointed to weak CagriSema trial results and a decline in Ozempic prescriptions. Despite this, the company is investing in production and entering a partnership with Hims & Hers. The shares are down 1.4%.

• The Dollar Index (USDIDX) is trading flat, with FX volatility mainly present in currencies perceived as risky (AUDUSD: +0.4%) and emerging market currencies (USDBRL: -0.5%, USDMXN: -0.6%), which are benefiting most from the return of risk appetite.

Source: xStation5

Economy and Politics:

• Donald Trump, during an interview with Fox News, indicated the "possibility of talks with Iran."

• U.S. Secretary of War Hegseth echoed Trump’s warning that the U.S. would strike harder than ever if Iran blocks the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

• In response to the risk of an energy crisis, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced that the EU will allocate 200 million euros for investment in nuclear technologies. The funds are to be sourced from the EU's emissions trading system.

• A series of comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials indicate a sense of calm and caution within the Governing Council, avoiding premature decisions in response to the risk of long-term increases in energy prices.

  • Mueller: "The probability of a rate hike has increased, but we should not rush."

  • Simkus: "We need to stay calm and take the next decision based on the best information on the day of the meeting."

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for February fell to 98.8 points. Despite a 7-point increase in current sales, expectations for future sales volume plummeted. The labor market remains tight: 33% of firms cannot fill vacancies, and 54% of owners report recruitment difficulties. Meanwhile, plans to create new jobs fell to the lowest level since May 2025.