Morning wrap (15.10.2025)

Wall Street closed yesterday’s session with mixed results. The escalation of tensions between China and the U.S. led to declines on the Nasdaq (-0.75%) and S&P 500 (-0.15%), while the Dow Jones (+0.44%) and Russell 2000 (+1.4%) recorded gains.

Futures on major indexes are rebounding as investors shift their focus to today’s corporate earnings (including Morgan Stanley and ASML) amid the absence of major macroeconomic data releases: US100: +0.55%, EU50: +0.4%.

According to Jerome Powell, the sharp slowdown in employment poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, keeping open the possibility of further interest rate cuts. At the same time, the Fed Chair emphasized the overall stability of the American economy and noted that the Fed’s access to data allows it to conduct monetary policy even in the event of a government shutdown.

Donald Trump stated in a social media post that China’s refusal to purchase American soybeans is an “economically hostile act.” He announced retaliation measures, including restricting purchases of Chinese cooking oil.

Powell’s dovish comments are driving gains across the Asia-Pacific region, although U.S.–China tensions continue to restrain sentiment. The strongest gains are seen in Japan and China indices (JP225: +1.6%, CHN.cash: +0.9%, HK.cash: +0.75%).

Consumer prices in China fell more sharply than expected in September on a monthly basis (-0.3% m/m, Bloomberg consensus: -0.2%, previous: -0.4%), while PPI deflation slowed in line with expectations (-2.9% y/y, previous: -3.6%). The largest price drops were recorded mainly in the most volatile categories—food and energy—which offset increases in jewelry and other goods. The deflationary pressure reflects subdued consumer demand, overproduction, and uncertainty regarding ongoing trade negotiations. On the other hand, core CPI rose by 1%, the highest since February 2024, softening the overall deflationary tone of the data.

The dollar index is falling for the second consecutive session (USDIDX: -0.2%), losing the most against Asian emerging-market currencies (USDINR, USDTHB: -0.5%), the Australian dollar (AUDUSD: +0.44%), and the yen (USDJPY: -0.4%). The AUD is the strongest G10 currency amid a return of risk appetite. EURUSD rises 0.15% to 1.1625.

Energy commodities continue to decline: OIL -0.1%, OIL.WTI -0.7%, and NATGAS -1.1%.

Gold adds another 1.1% to $4,190 per ounce, breaking another record high. Also trading in the green are silver (+1.4% to $52.20), platinum (+1.5%), and palladium (+0.5%).

Sentiment in cryptocurrencies remains mixed: Bitcoin is down 0.6% to $112,620, Ethereum is down 0,3% to $4,110, while Solana is up 1,6%.