US Open: U.S. stock indices slip slightly on the last trading day of 2025

Major US indexes open the last trading day of 2025 slightly below previous close levels. The session will be shorter, and with low volume, significant fluctuations are not expected, especially after solid labor market data. Unemployment figures show that the labor market remains stable. The number of new jobless claims fell to its lowest level in a month, while continuing claims also decreased as expected. This means that despite the slight drop in indexes at the open, the labor market remains resilient to seasonal fluctuations and prior Fed rate cuts.

Yesterday, the minutes from the December Fed meeting were released, revealing growing disagreements among FOMC members regarding further interest rate cuts, despite the decision to cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5–3.75%, with a nine-to-three vote—the largest number of dissents since 2019. Most participants expect additional cuts if inflation falls as projected to the 2% target, but some suggest keeping rates at the current level for longer, concerned about the durability of the inflation decline and potential labor market deterioration amid moderate economic growth, including the sharp 4.3% GDP growth in Q3.

The impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs was considered temporary, set to expire by 2026, although the hawkish faction emphasized the need for more certainty regarding price trajectories. The dot plot, covering forecasts from 19 members, indicates further cuts in 2026 and 2027 toward the neutral level of around 3%, which the market interpreted as a slight decline on Wall Street and an increased likelihood of a rate cut in April. The upcoming rotation of regional bank presidents, including Beth Hammack, Anna Paulson, Lorie Logan, and Neel Kashkari—many of whom oppose further easing—may further influence FOMC dynamics. At the same time, the central bank has resumed purchases of short-term Treasury bills at $40 billion per month to prevent reserves from falling below safe levels. Markets expect a pause in decisions until new data arrives after information gaps caused by the government shutdown.

Source: xStation5

US500 (H1 interval)

S&P 500 futures (US500) are slightly pulling back after earlier gains, indicating a correction on the hourly chart. The price is attempting to rebound from recent declines, but the short-term EMA 25 remains below the EMA 50 and 100, and the key resistance at EMA 100 has not yet been broken. The RSI suggests a seller’s advantage, but without strong oversold conditions. The market is waiting for a signal whether breaking EMA 100 will trigger a new upward move or the price will remain in the current range.

Source: xStation5

Corporate News:

• In the biotech segment, Vanda Pharmaceuticals (VNDA.US) is up 30% after FDA historic approval for the drug NEREUS. US market launch is planned in the coming months, opening access to the lucrative kinetosis treatment segment.

• Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM.US) shares are rising 16% after the FDA agreed to a fast review of its application to expand the use of AXS-05 for agitation in Alzheimer’s patients. A decision is expected by April 30, 2026. Additionally, the FDA allowed the company to submit a new drug for narcolepsy, strengthening its portfolio in neurological and psychiatric treatments.

• Cybin (CYBN.US) shares are falling around 5% following the launch of a new $100 million stock offering program, allowing the company to sell shares directly on the market to fund working capital and accelerate development. The program will run until October 2027.

• Nike (NKE.US) shares are rising after CEO Elliott Hill purchased over $1 million in company stock, increasing his holdings to more than 241,000 shares. Hill’s return to the company at the end of 2024 is seen as a potential boost, and the stock purchase may signal confidence in Nike’s future.

• Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT.US) shares are also up 4% following plans to issue a digital token for shareholders in partnership with Crypto.com. Each shareholder will receive one token per share, granting rewards and discounts for company products such as Truth Social, Truth+, and Truth Predict.