Morning wrap (17.02.2025)

The U.S. stock market will remain closed today due to a public holiday (Presidents' Day).

On Friday, the technology sector boosted gains on Wall Street, helping to offset concerns about higher inflation. The Nasdaq gained 0.4%, the S&P 500 closed flat, while the DJIA (-0.37%) and Russell 2000 (-0.1%) recorded losses.

Market sentiment in Asia at the start of the week is mixed. The Japanese Nikkei 225 (+0.13%) and South Korea's Kospi (+0.59%) are gaining, while the Shanghai SE Composite (-0.21%) and China's HSCEI (-0.91%) are in the red.

Enthusiasm in the Chinese technology sector (following the release of a Chinese AI model) is gradually fading due to tensions between Trump and the EU over tariffs and the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Japan’s GDP grew by 2.8% (annualized) in Q4 2024, exceeding the forecast of 1.1% (previous: 1.2%). Quarter-on-quarter growth was 0.7% (forecast and previous: 0.3%). The Japanese economy's expansion is driven by increased corporate investments (CAPEX) and improved net exports.

A ZDF poll following the German chancellor candidates' debate showed 30% support for Merz (CDU), 20% for Weidel (AfD), 16% for Scholz (SPD), and 14% for Habeck (Greens). The snap Bundestag elections will take place this Sunday, February 23.

Emmanuel Macron has invited European leaders to an urgent meeting today in Paris to discuss security and Ukraine after Donald Trump previewed peace talks between Ukraine and Russia in Saudi Arabia.

WTI and Brent futures are up 0.28% and 0.14%, respectively, but options market contracts reflect concerns about global demand amid U.S. tariffs and high credit costs.

In the FX market, the Japanese yen continues to strengthen against all G10 currencies (USDJPY: -0.37%). The euro-dollar rally, driven by Trump’s rapid moves on Ukraine peace talks, has stalled (EURUSD: 1.0492). Antipodean currencies are appreciating (AUDUSD: +0.3%; NZDUSD: +0.26%).

Gold is rebounding by 0.2% after Friday’s correction to $2,890 per ounce, while silver is slightly down (-0.05% to $32.09 per ounce).

Major cryptocurrencies remain stagnant (Bitcoin: -0.8% to $96,420; Ethereum: -0.12%; Ripple: -2.7%; Solana: -2.2%).