- Global markets cautious ahead of central bank decisions, with Fed's Wednesday meeting in focus. Markets price 94% probability of 25bps cut but expect slower easing in 2025. US futures edge lower despite overnight tech-driven gains.
- Asian stocks mixed as China data disappoints. Nikkei rises 0.3%, Hang Seng drops 0.5%. Chinese industrial output meets expectations but retail sales slow sharply. Property sector remains under pressure despite stabilizing home prices.
- China plans record 4% GDP deficit for 2025, up from 3% target, to support growth amid economic headwinds. Leadership maintains 5% growth target despite property crisis and external risks including potential Trump tariffs.
- Bitcoin hits new record of $107,767 on Trump's Strategic Reserve proposal, though implementation faces hurdles. MicroStrategy's Nasdaq 100 inclusion boosts sentiment. ETH approaches all-time high at $4,011.
- Political turmoil roils multiple regions. South Korean President Yoon impeached over martial law decree, German parliament withdraws confidence in Scholz government, Canadian Finance Minister Freeland resigns amid US trade tensions.
- BOJ expected to hold rates steady this week according to 91% of surveyed institutions, though majority see hikes within three months. Asian central banks split on policy with Indonesia, Thailand holding while Philippines likely to cut.
- Dollar firm near 2.5-week highs as markets await Fed guidance. Euro trades at $1.05002, yen steady at 154.06. Sterling bounces on wage pressure concerns ahead of UK labor data.
- Oil retreats with WTI at $70.60 and Brent at $74.08 as China demand concerns offset OPEC+ cuts. IEA warns of 950,000 bpd surplus in 2025 despite production constraints.
- Alibaba to sell Intime stake for $1 billion, recording $1.3 billion loss as part of strategic restructuring. Shares drop 1.5% in Hong Kong trading.
- Major data releases today include UK wage data, German Ifo expectations and ZEW economic sentiment for December.
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