Morning wrap (18.08.2025)

Although Friday ended with a correction on Wall Street (S&P 500: -0.3%, Nasdaq: -0.4%, Russell 2000: -0.55%, DJIA: +0.1%), index futures are starting the week with moderate optimism (US500: +0.1%, EU50: +0.1%).

Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin brought no breakthrough for the war in Ukraine. Sources report that Putin is demanding full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in exchange for “agreeing” to NATO-style security guarantees for Ukraine. According to Trump, “Zelensky, if he wants, can end the war immediately or continue to fight.”

The market is now focused on today’s scheduled Trump–Zelensky meeting. The President of Ukraine is expected to be joined at the White House by European leaders to avoid a repeat of the tense February encounter.

White House trade advisor Peter Navarro criticized India for importing Russian oil, arguing that the country should act more like a strategic U.S. partner.

In the Asia-Pacific region, optimism dominates, driven mainly by Trump’s decision to hold off on raising tariffs on China for importing Russian oil. The strongest gains are seen in India (Nifty 50: +1.1%) after Prime Minister Modi announced cuts in consumption taxes. Auto and electronics manufacturers are leading the rally. Chinese HSCEI (CHN.cash: +1%), Hang Seng (HK.cash: +0.75%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225: +0.7%), and Australia’s S&P ASX 200 (AU200.cash: +0.6%) are also trading higher.

In the forex market, volatility remains relatively limited. The biggest moves are in the Antipodean currencies (AUDUSD: +0.2%, NZDUSD: +0.3%), rebounding on reduced uncertainty following the Trump–Putin summit and the tariff decision on China. The NZD is additionally supported by expectations of a moderate rate cut on Wednesday (25 bps). The dollar index (USDIDX) and EURUSD (1.17) are flat, while the Japanese yen is underperforming (USDJPY: +0.15%).

Oil futures remain under downward pressure (OIL: -0.3%, OIL.WTI: -0.35%), although prices have already recovered part of the early-session losses.

Gold is up 0.35% to $3,345 per ounce, while silver rises 0.15% to $38.06 per ounce.

Cryptocurrencies remain under pressure: Bitcoin falls 1.9% to $115,450, while Ethereum slides 3.9% to $4,295.