Morning Wrap (24.06.2025)

President Trump declared a “complete and total” ceasefire between Israel and Iran, ending what he called the “12-day war.” He praised both nations for their courage and intelligence.

The announcement came after U.S. markets had closed on Monday—S&P futures rose, and oil prices dropped in response.

Today, Asia-Pacific indices are also gaining, while oil and the U.S. dollar are falling sharply following the Middle East ceasefire.

The truce was scheduled to begin at 04:00 GMT, but Iran stated it would only recognize the start at 04:00 Iran Standard Time (00:30 GMT). Before that hour, Israel launched heavy attacks on Tehran using bunker-busting bombs. Iran responded with IRST missile fire shortly after 04:00 GMT, technically violating the ceasefire—yet markets remained calm.

Iranian media claimed the missile strikes were the last blow before the ceasefire began. Israel reportedly ceased fire by 00:30 GMT, but Iran continued its operations.

WTI crude fell by $11, reflecting de-escalation and no disruptions to trade routes. U.S. stock indices are up 0.50–0.80% today, nearing all-time highs.

Trump’s ceasefire announcement contributed to the oil price drop. Later reports revealed that the U.S. had been informed of Iran’s plans in advance, suggesting the final strikes were controlled.

Israel agreed to the ceasefire on the condition that Iran refrains from further attacks. According to reports, Iran assured the U.S. it would not escalate further. The White House confirmed that both sides are now complying with the truce.

In South Korea, the June consumer sentiment index rose to 108.7, its highest since June 2021. Inflation expectations fell to 2.4%, the lowest since October 2021.

Meanwhile, HSBC raised its EUR/USD forecast to 1.20 by the end of 2025, citing a growing trend of global dedollarization.