Nasdaq 100 has risen 25% from its March 31 low 📈 What’s next?

The US100 contract tracking the Nasdaq 100 index has rebounded by over 25% from its local low on March 31. A major driver behind this rally is the semiconductor sector, which in 2026 has once again become a key engine of optimism in the U.S. market. Looking at the US100 daily chart, the RSI is approaching 80, suggesting near-overbought conditions, while the scale of gains over the past 35 days has few precedents in the history of the U.S. equity market.

As a result, a pullback appears possible. In the short term, investors may look for key momentum support around 28,000 points (trendline) and 27,000 points (price action). On the other hand, if the upward move continues, a test of the 30,000 level could be a matter of weeks. This would likely require lower oil prices and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts following Kevin Warsh taking leadership at the Federal Reserve.

US100 (D1 interval)

Source: xStation5

Importantly, valuation multiples of companies within the index still appear subdued—mainly due to recent declines in the software sector and a strong earnings season. Combined price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-book ratios remain at historically low levels.

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P.

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