📉NATGAS falls over 5%

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Gas prices are experiencing a more than 5% pullback today, following a strong surge at the end of last week. On Friday, forecasts indicated significantly higher temperatures for the next two weeks, but the latest projections suggest slightly less intense heat than previously anticipated.

NOAA indicates a 40-60% probability of higher temperatures across almost all regions of the US. However, this is insufficient to drive gas consumption above standard levels. Source: NOAA

This has led to natural gas consumption data for electricity generation returning to around the five-year average. It is worth noting that the peak in gas consumption for power production typically occurs in late July, a period when gas inventories usually grow more slowly than during May-June.

Gas consumption for electricity generation has fallen to the 5-year average. In the coming weeks, we should expect peak demand for gas from power plants. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, XTB

NATGAS (D1) Technical Situation

On Friday, gas prices reached their 100-period moving average. Today, the price is rebounding from these levels, falling to almost $3.5/MMBTU, having broken through both the 14-period and then the 50-period moving averages. Currently, the key support level remains around the 200-period moving average. As seasonality suggests, declines could persist until approximately the beginning of the second week of July.

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