The latest weather forecasts half the declines of the natural gas prices in nthe US. Today, the price is rising by more than 13% and is above $2 per MMBTU. The price is at the highest level since the May breakout and is trading near the upper limit of consolidation zone. What is causing such significant increases of the natural gas prices?
This is due to a change in weather forecasts. The heatwave lasting several weeks was expected to stop last week, but the latest results from weather models show a further rise in temperatures. This increases the energy demand for cooling equipment. Refinitiv expects gas demand, which also includes exports, to rise to 92.5 bcfd this week from 88.8 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day). Meanwhile, exports alone are expected to amount to 4.0 bcfd in August, which is an increase from 3.3 bcfd in July. It was also the lowest level in 21 months. The level of 4.0 bcfd means the the export capacity is used at 41% level. So far, the highest level of 8.7 bcfd was recorded in February and accounted for 87% of export capacity utilization. The data also shows a declining volume of canceled US gas deliveries.
Natural gas price is testing a very important resistance level. The price increase is linked to the expectation of unusually high demand. Source: xStation5
