New York Fed releases new forecasts showing higher 1-year inflation expectations 🔔

The New York Fed has just published its latest report based on household survey data covering inflation expectations and economic conditions. In September, household inflation expectations increased at the short-term horizon (1 year: 3.4%) and the long-term horizon (5 years: 3.0%), while remaining stable at the medium-term (3 years: 3.0%). Disagreement among respondents narrowed for both the 1- and 5-year outlooks. Inflation uncertainty declined for the 1-year horizon, remained unchanged for 3 years, and rose slightly for 5 years.

Home-price growth expectations held steady for the fourth straight month at 3.0%. Expected annual price changes increased for food (5.8%, +0.3 pp), gasoline (4.2%, +0.3 pp), medical care (9.3%, +0.5 pp), and rent (7.0%, +1.0 pp), while college-tuition costs declined to 7.0% (–0.8 pp).

Labor-market sentiment weakened despite a rebound in the share of respondents expecting to find a new job after job loss (47.4%, up from 44.9%, but still below the 12-month average of 51.0%). Expected wage growth fell to 2.4%, while respondents reported a higher likelihood of rising unemployment (41.1%), a modest increase in job-loss risk (14.9%), and higher voluntary-quit intentions (20.7%).

Regarding household finances, expected income growth remained stable at 2.9%, while spending growth slowed to 4.7%. The perceived risk of missing a debt payment declined to 12.6% (below the 12-month average of 13.5%). Households rate their current financial situation slightly better than a year ago but are less optimistic about the future. Expectations rose for higher taxes (3.6%), rising public debt (7.5%), a slight increase in savings rates (24.9%), and a greater likelihood of higher stock prices within the next year (39.8%).