State-level readings set stage for upside surprise in German inflation data

A key European macro reading of the day is the release of the flash German CPI report for September, scheduled for 1:00 pm BST. Market consensus points to an acceleration from 7.9% to 9.5% YoY. However, there is a big chance that the actual report will surprise to the upside given inflation data from German states released today:

North Rhine Westphalia: 10.1% YoY vs 8.1% YoY in August
Baden Wuerttemberg: 9.5% YoY vs 7.3% YoY in August
Hesse: 9.4% YoY vs 8.0% YoY in August
Bavaria: 10.8% YoY vs 8.4% YoY in August
Brandenburg: 9.9% YoY vs 7.9% YoY in August
Saxony: 9.2% YoY vs 7.3% YoY in August

As one can see, major acceleration was noted in almost all states with the majority of those printing readings of 9.5% or higher. EUR gained this morning but for different reasons. A number of ECB members that spoke today supported a 50 bp or 75 bp rate hike for the next meeting with Olli Rehn even saying that rates in EMU should get to neutral levels by Christmas.

EURUSD started to recover on hawkish comments from ECB members. German inflation data at 1:00 pm BST may trigger a volatility jump on the EUR market. Source: xStation5

14 April 2026, 1:30 PM

BREAKING: US PPI comes in weaker than expected. EURUSD gains ground

14 April 2026, 12:07 PM

🚩 US NFIB report much weaker than expected

14 April 2026, 7:43 AM

Economic calendar: US PPI report and central bankers speeches in focus

13 April 2026, 7:03 PM

Daily summary: Stocks back in the green on hopes for US-Iran talks, dollar resumes losing streak (13.04.2026)

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
_cfuvid

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-98728395-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 730 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
_ttp	Expiration date 89 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 89 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days

Cookie name	Description
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days