US Open: declining dollar supports american stocks 📈

3:38 PM 5 February 2025

Although market sentiment on the U.S. financial market is mixed, the stock market is experiencing sluggish gains at the start of the cash session. Investors are primarily focused on U.S. trade policy and developments with China. In the first minutes of trading, the US500 is up 0.15% to 6,050 points, US100 is down 0.05% to 21,500 points, and US2000 is up 0.34% to 2,300 points.

Investor sentiment is strongly supported by a weakening U.S. dollar. The USDIDX index is down 0.43% today to 107.350 points, erasing almost all the gains linked to the weekend’s tariff-related decisions. This drop is largely tied to the U.S. trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. However, uncertainty regarding China remains.

U.S. customs authorities announced yesterday that American tariffs will apply to both Hong Kong and mainland China. Additionally, the White House has ended a tax exemption that previously allowed packages valued below $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free. In response, China has signaled potential retaliatory tariffs targeting major technology giants.

US100 – Chart of the Day

Given these factors, the situation for US100 remains highly uncertain. On one hand, the index is still trading near its highs, and Trump aims to strongly support technological development in the long run. On the other hand, the trade dispute with China could serve as a significant bearish catalyst. Today, the US100 index is down 0.05%, currently trading at 21,550 points.

Company News

Snap (SNAP.US) gains 4% on strong Q4 results, with 15% Y/Y revenue growth and 9% DAU growth. Q1 revenue guidance of $1.33B–$1.36B topped estimates, but adjusted EBITDA forecast ($40M–$75M) missed consensus ($79.9M). DAUs expected to reach 459M in Q1.

Lumen Technologies (LUMN.US) surged almost 9% after Q4 results showed an 18.9% Y/Y fiber broadband revenue increase and 42,000 new Quantum Fiber customers. FY2025 guidance: $3.2B–$3.4B EBITDA, $700M–$900M FCF, $4.1B–$4.3B capex. Aiming for $250M in cost savings by year-end and $1B in expense cuts by 2027.

Enphase Energy (ENPH.US) gains 8.20% on strong Q4 results, with 26.5% Y/Y revenue growth and GAAP gross margin of 51.8%. Free cash flow: $159.2M; liquidity: $1.72B. Q1 2025 revenue guidance of $340M–$380M beat estimates, with 150–170 MWh of IQ Batteries shipments and non-GAAP gross margin forecasted at 48%–51%.

Alphabet (GOOGL.US) dropped 7.10% after mixed Q4 results and an unexpectedly high $75B CapEx plan for FY2025 (vs. $57.9B consensus). Q1 spending forecasted at $16B–$18B, with most funds going to AI infrastructure. Forex headwinds and one fewer sales day in Q1 add pressure, despite AI-driven Search and Cloud growth.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US) fell 8.50% despite 24% Y/Y Q4 revenue growth, as slowing Data Center growth spooked investors (69% Y/Y vs. 122% in Q3, 114.5% in Q2). Q1 revenue guidance of $6.8B–$7.4B (midpoint $7.1B) slightly above consensus ($7.04B), but concerns remain over segment growth deceleration.

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