💲 USD gains ahead of US jobs report

10:11 AM 8 December 2023

📆 NFP report for November to be released at 1:30 pm GMT

Release of the US jobs data for November is a key market event of the day. NFP report will be released at 1:30 pm GMT and is expected to show a bigger employment gain than in October. While monthly wage growth is seen accelerating more than in October, wage growth on an annual basis is expected to decelerate to 4.0% YoY. However, an already-released US labor market data for November suggests that we may have a disappointing NFP reading ahead.

What markets expects from today's NFP reading?

Start investing today or test a free demo

Open real account TRY DEMO Download mobile app Download mobile app
  • Non-farm payrolls. Expected: 180k. Previous: 150k
  • Private payrolls. Expected: 153k. Previous: 99k
  • Unemployment rate. Expected: 3.9%. Previous: 3.9%
  • Wage growth (annual). Expected: 4.0% YoY. Previous: 4.1% YoY
  • Wage growth (monthly). Expected: 0.3% MoM. Previous: 0.2% MoM

Worrying signals from other jobs reports

ADP report for November missed expectations and showed a 103k employment gain for the previous month. Moreover, data for October was revised lower from 113k to 106k. Also, employment subindices in services and manufacturing ISM reports for November both came in below expectations. Challenger report also hinted at more planned lay-offs than a month ago. However, it should be said that services ISM employment subindex improved compared to a previous reading and planned lay-offs are much smaller than they were in November 2022.

On the other hand, employment growth could get a boost as two major workers' strikes were resolved in November - United Auto Workers strike and Hollywood actors strike. It is estimated that end of those two strikes will provide an around-40k boost to employment growth.

Already released US labor market data for November

  • Manufacturing ISM employment (November): 45.8 vs 47.6 expected (46.8 prior)
  • Services ISM employment (November): 50.7 vs 51.4 expected (50.2 prior)
  • ADP report (November): 103k vs 130k expected (106k previously)
  • Challenger report (November): 45.51k vs 36.84k previously (-40.8% YoY)

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP, BLS, XTB

Will today's data matter for the Fed?

Jobs data always matter for the Fed as it pursues its dual-mandate of keeping inflation stable and achieving maximum sustainable employment. However, it is highly unlikely that today's print will have any impact on FOMC rate decision scheduled for Wednesday next week. Expectations for NFP data suggest further cooling of the US labor market and slowdown in wage growth means that inflationary pressures ease. Such developments seem to confirm that further rate hikes are not needed anymore.

However, it does not mean that markets will look past today's release. Severity of jobs market cooling would likely impact market pricing for rate cuts next year. Should the report come in weaker-than-expected, markets may start pricing in rate cuts earlier. Right now, the first rate cut is fully priced in for May 2024 meeting, with pricing for March 2024 meeting showing an over-50% chance of a cut. Weak NFP data would boost dovish bets and it may weaken USD and boost equities. However, should the pricing get extremely dovish and suggest that rate cuts will begin already in Q1 2024, Fed may be forced to cool these expectations and push back against them at the next week's meeting.

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

A look at the markets

EURUSD

Main currency pair has been sliding recently as USD regained some of its shine. EURUSD tested 1.0750 support zone this week but failed to break below it, and an upward correction was launched. However, this correction failed to break above the upper limit of market geometry or paint a higher high, and the technical outlook remains bearish. However, a strong NFP print may be needed to maintain the downtrend. Source: xStation5

US100

Recent upward move on Nasdaq-100 futures (US100) was halted at the 16,035 pts swing area earlier this week. The index has been trading in a tight range between 16,000 pts support and 16,035 pts resistance since. NFP report today may provide fuel for a breakout, with weak NFP report being equity-positive due to increased likelihood of rate cuts starting earlier. Source: xStation5

GOLD

GOLD spiked to all-time highs at the start of this week's trading but has since erased all those gains and pulled back below the $2,070 price zone. Pullback was halted at the $2,000-2,010 support zone, at least for now. Post-NFP moves on GOLD will be driven by USD, with a weak jobs data having potential to weaken USD and boost precious metals. Source: xStation5

 

Share:
Back
Xtb logo

Join over 1 000 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world

The financial instruments we offer, especially CFDs, can be highly risky. Fractional Shares (FS) is an acquired from XTB fiduciary right to fractional parts of stocks and ETFs. FS are not a separate financial instrument. The limited corporate rights are associated with FS.
This page was not created for investors residing in Brazil. This brokerage is not authorized by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) or the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The content of this page should not be characterized as an investment offer in Brazil or for investors residing in that country.
Losses can exceed deposits

We use cookies

By clicking “Accept All”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.

This group contains cookies that are necessary for our websites to work. They take part in functionalities like language preferences, traffic distribution or keeping user session. They cannot be disabled.

Cookie name
Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol cc 25 October 2024
test_cookie cc 24 October 2024
adobe_unique_id cc 24 October 2025
__hssc cc 24 October 2024
SESSID cc 2 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
intercom-id-iojaybix cc 21 July 2025
intercom-session-iojaybix cc 31 October 2024
xtbCookiesSettings cc 24 October 2025
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
xtbLanguageSettings cc 24 October 2025
userPreviousBranchSymbol cc 24 October 2025
TS5b68a4e1027
intercom-device-id-iojaybix cc 21 July 2025
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
__cfruid
__cfruid
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
_cfuvid
adobe_unique_id cc 24 October 2025
_cfuvid
TS5b68a4e1027
xtbCookiesSettings cc 24 October 2025
SERVERID
TS5b68a4e1027
__hssc cc 24 October 2024
test_cookie cc 1 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
_cfuvid
_cfuvid
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024
__cf_bm cc 24 October 2024

We use tools that let us analyze the usage of our page. Such data lets us improve the user experience of our web service.

Cookie name
Description
_gid cc 9 September 2022
_gat_UA-98728395-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gat_UA-121192761-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gcl_au cc 22 January 2025
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 24 October 2026
_ga cc 24 October 2026
__hstc cc 22 April 2025
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2 cc 25 October 2025
_ga_TC79BEJ20L cc 24 October 2026
_vwo_uuid cc 16 October 2025
_vwo_ds cc 15 November 2024
_vwo_sn cc 16 October 2024
_vis_opt_s cc 24 January 2025
_vis_opt_test_cookie
af_id cc 23 February 2025
afUserId cc 25 January 2026
af_id cc 24 January 2026
AF_SYNC cc 1 February 2024
_ga cc 24 October 2026
_gid cc 25 October 2024
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 24 October 2026
__hstc cc 22 April 2025
__hssrc
_ga_TC79BEJ20L cc 24 October 2026
_gcl_au cc 22 January 2025
AnalyticsSyncHistory cc 31 March 2024

This group of cookies is used to show you ads of topics that you are interested in. It also lets us monitor our marketing activities, it helps to measure the performance of our ads.

Cookie name
Description
MUID cc 18 November 2025
_omappvp cc 6 October 2035
_omappvs cc 24 October 2024
_uetsid cc 25 October 2024
_uetvid cc 18 November 2025
_fbp cc 22 January 2025
fr cc 7 December 2022
_ttp cc 22 January 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 22 January 2025
_ttp cc 22 January 2025
hubspotutk cc 22 April 2025
IDE cc 10 November 2025
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE cc 22 April 2025
hubspotutk cc 22 April 2025
_omappvp cc 11 February 2035
_omappvs cc 1 March 2024
_uetsid cc 25 October 2024
_uetvid cc 18 November 2025
_ttp cc 22 January 2025
MUID cc 18 November 2025
_fbp cc 22 January 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 22 January 2025
_ttp cc 22 January 2025
li_sugr cc 30 May 2024
guest_id_marketing cc 24 October 2026
guest_id_ads cc 24 October 2026
guest_id cc 24 October 2026
muc_ads cc 24 October 2026
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA cc 22 April 2025
MSPTC cc 18 November 2025
IDE cc 18 November 2025
MSPTC cc 18 November 2025

Cookies from this group store your preferences you gave while using the site, so that they will already be here when you visit the page after some time.

Cookie name
Description
bcookie cc 24 October 2025
lidc cc 25 October 2024
UserMatchHistory cc 31 March 2024
bscookie cc 1 March 2025
li_gc cc 22 April 2025
bcookie cc 24 October 2025
li_gc cc 22 April 2025
lidc cc 25 October 2024
personalization_id cc 24 October 2026

This page uses cookies. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by most websites to help personalise your web experience. For more information see our Privacy Policy You can manage cookies by clicking "Settings". If you agree to our use of cookies, click "Accept all".

Change region and language
Country of residence
Language