❓What to expect from the NFP report❓

11:53 AM 6 May 2022

At 2:30 pm BST key data from the US labor market will be released. What's next for US100 and silver?

The NFP report for April will be released today at 2:30 pm BST. Probably the market will be limited, due to the recent Fed decision and the collapse in the markets, which has been taking place since Thursday's session on Wall Street. Nevertheless, it is worth paying attention to this report as it may provide hints whether US inflationary pressures subsides and the overall condition of the labor market. What to look for in today's report?

• Bloomberg consensus points to a change in employment at 380k. with the previous reading of 431 k (the lowest forecast is 250,000, the highest 517,000)

Start investing today or test a free demo

Open real account TRY DEMO Download mobile app Download mobile app

• The ADP report showed an increase of only 247 thousand.

• Employment sub-indices from the ISM report showed massive declines. From the industrial sector to 50.9 (from approx. 56) and the service sector to 49.5 (from 54).

• The unemployment rate is set to drop to 3.5% - the lowest levels since the pandemic. March reading showed the rate at 3.6%

• Wages growth will be most closely watched taking into account inflationary pressure.

• A minimal slowdown from 5.6% y/y to 5.5% y/y is expected, on monthly basis the dynamics of 0.4% m / m is to be maintained

• The participation rate is to increase by 0.1% to 62.5%. It remains 1.0% below the pre-pandemic high

The ADP report and the employment sub-index from the ISM report are not optimistic. On the other hand,  the US is expected to reach full employment, so the increase above 200,000 at the current participation rate should be satisfactory and should lead to further decline of the unemployment rate. Source: Bloomberg

Will US100 rebound?

The US100 has tested the latest local lows around 12,750 pts. This level also acted as support in Q1 of 2021. Any signal of weakening inflationary pressure should be positive for indices. On the other hand, a potential fall in employment would signal a potential weakness of the labor market. It seems, however, that it is too early for the labor market to react to interest rate hikes. Source: xStation5

Will silver finally move higher?

Correlation between stock and the precious metals markets is getting stronger partially due to wide use of ETFs. That is why the recovery in the stock market should be positive for silver and also for gold. Precious metals will also react strongly to price movements of the US dollar and yields. Silver is facing the key demand zone around $21.5- $22.3. Should stock market sell-off deepens and price break below this level, then downward correction may deepen towards  $18.5 per ounce. However, if the situation in the markets stabilize, then silver may move towards resistance at $ 25 an ounce. Source: xStation5

Share:
Back
Xtb logo

Join over 935 000 XTB Group Clients from around the world

The financial instruments we offer, especially CFDs, can be highly risky. Fractional Shares (FS) is an acquired from XTB fiduciary right to fractional parts of stocks and ETFs. FS are not a separate financial instrument. The limited corporate rights are associated with FS.
This page was not created for investors residing in Brazil. This brokerage is not authorized by the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (CVM) or the Brazilian Central Bank (BCB). The content of this page should not be characterized as an investment offer in Brazil or for investors residing in that country.
Losses can exceed deposits

We use cookies

By clicking “Accept All”, you agree to the storing of cookies on your device to enhance site navigation, analyze site usage, and assist in our marketing efforts.

This group contains cookies that are necessary for our websites to work. They take part in functionalities like language preferences, traffic distribution or keeping user session. They cannot be disabled.

Cookie name
Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol cc 2 March 2024
test_cookie cc 25 January 2024
adobe_unique_id cc 1 March 2025
__hssc cc 8 September 2022
SESSID cc 2 March 2024
__cf_bm cc 8 September 2022
intercom-id-iojaybix cc 26 November 2024
intercom-session-iojaybix cc 8 March 2024

We use tools that let us analyze the usage of our page. Such data lets us improve the user experience of our web service.

Cookie name
Description
_gid cc 9 September 2022
_gat_UA-98728395-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gat_UA-121192761-1 cc 8 September 2022
_gcl_au cc 30 May 2024
_ga_CBPL72L2EC cc 1 March 2026
_ga cc 1 March 2026
__hstc cc 7 March 2023
__hssrc

This group of cookies is used to show you ads of topics that you are interested in. It also lets us monitor our marketing activities, it helps to measure the performance of our ads.

Cookie name
Description
MUID cc 26 March 2025
_omappvp cc 11 February 2035
_omappvs cc 1 March 2024
_uetsid cc 2 March 2024
_uetvid cc 26 March 2025
_fbp cc 30 May 2024
fr cc 7 December 2022
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
_tt_enable_cookie cc 26 March 2025
_ttp cc 26 March 2025
hubspotutk cc 7 March 2023

Cookies from this group store your preferences you gave while using the site, so that they will already be here when you visit the page after some time.

Cookie name
Description

This page uses cookies. Cookies are files stored in your browser and are used by most websites to help personalise your web experience. For more information see our Privacy Policy You can manage cookies by clicking "Settings". If you agree to our use of cookies, click "Accept all".

Change region and language
Country of residence
Language