Will the copper price hit $10,000?

Copper has had a phenomenal series of rallies that led to the breaking above the 7-year highs. The price of copper is trading above USD 7,700 per ton and, according to some forecasts, there is a chance of continuing increases in the next two years, which could lead to new historic highs. Goldman Sachs alone expects the copper price to rise to around $ 9,500 per ton. At present, we are mainly observing a very clear rebound in imports from China. Despite a very difficult year related to the coronavirus, China imported more copper in the first three quarters of this year than in the past year. In addition, very low inventories levels, including copper scrap, forced China to buy more expensive products.
Of course, some believe that with such high prices, a large amount of inventory, mainly scrap may be directed to the market to take advantage of the high prices. This was the case in 2011 after the price exceeded USD 10,000 per ton. Now inventories levels, both on all world exchanges and in China (based on data from exchanges) are at the lowest levels since 2014.

Inventories remain at a very low level, looking from the perspective of the last dozen or so years. On the other hand, what is most important is what happens in China. Recently, inventories there have fallen below the 5-year minimum. Source: Bloomberg

Moreover, next year is also expected to be a year of weak dollar, which is related to strong easing by the Fed and the inflow of cash from the government. This year, China is also expected to be one of the few economies in the world that will record annual growth. At the very end, it is worth mentioning the changing trends in the energy and automotive sectors. The use of alternative energy sources and the world's shift to electric cars generate another strong segment of the demand for copper. This year, in turn, is associated with supply problems that may persist in the next dozen or so months. This could lead to a deficit in the refining copper market for the first time in a long time. Therefore, there is a very good chance for further increases, although of course it is worth remembering that there may be stops on the way, such as those that took place in September and October this year.

Currently, after some really strong weeks, we are witnessing a potential "turning point". The weekly chart shows a clear candlestick shadow that could herald a pullback. The declines can probably reach the upper or even lower limits of the last price gap. It is worth paying attention to the seasonality, which currently shows a potential low, and then increases at least until March.

Copper is showing some signs of weakness this week. On the other hand, the fundamentals are very solid. Source: xStation5

It is worth paying attention to the copper- gold ratio. One can see that in recent years support occured around 3.0 level. If we were to count on a similar rebound as it was after the previous financial crisis, the ratio could increase to 6.0 level. Assuming that monetary conditions will continue to support gold - we assume that the price will rise up to $ 2,000 (as you can see the yields at the moment also offer a chance for even higher gold prices), a ratio of 6 would give $ 12,000 per ton for copper! Of course, such a situation is possible with strong fiscal support in China and around the world.

The price ratio may give us some future prospects if it behaves like it did in the post-crisis periods. Source: Bloomberg

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Will the copper price hit $10,000?

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