Another surge in US CPI inflation caught markets off guard and triggered a sell-off on global stock markets. Indices will get a chance to move next week on FOMC minutes and US retail sales report for January. However, retail sales have been rather disappointing as of late and minutes pointed to an increasingly hawkish Fed, so relief may not arrive. Be sure to watch US500, GOLD and USDTRY in the week ahead!
US500
Wall Street earnings season is slowly coming to an end, but there are plenty of other factors that could move stock markets. One of them is the release of the US retail sales report for January (Wednesday, 1:30 pm GMT). The market expects headline sales to increase 1.7% MoM, but it should be noted that the report for December showed a big and unexpected drop. Having said that, nothing can be taken for granted, and especially not market expectations. Weak reading for January could magnify pressures on stock indices, like US500 or US100.
GOLD
Gold as well as other precious metals took a hit this week, following release of the US CPI data for January. Another acceleration in price growth boosted odds for more decisive tightening from the Fed. Investors will be offered another important piece on the US monetary policy next week - FOMC minutes (Wednesday, 7:00 pm GMT). The document will not touch on the most recent CPI data, but may offer some insight. Gold price halted upward move in the $1,840 area and awaits the next catalyst.
USDTRY
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is set to announce its next monetary policy decision next Thursday at 11:00 pm GMT. CBRT stayed on hold at its latest meeting, a move that was welcomed by market participants. A pause in rate cuts is expected to help lower volatility on TRY market. The market expects that CBRT will not change rates this Thursday as Turkish authorities try to regain citizens' support ahead of elections. USDTRY has been hovering around 13.50 handle a month already.
