- The session in Europe passed today in a mostly moderately positive mood, with most benchmarks closing on a positive note. The DAX and CAC40 closed the session with modest gains
- The ECB's Panetta conveyed that restrictive policies are dampening demand and contributing to a rapid decline in inflation. The dovish banker added that, as risks to price stability diminish, the conditions for starting policy easing are materializing. EURUSD loses more than 0.17% today
- Investors' attention from the beginning of the session was oriented towards macro data from the US. U.S. 10-year bond yields fell below 4.2% to 4.18%. However, this did not prevent the dollar index (USDIDX) from rising 0.25%
- The dollar's rise is not stopping gold, which is on track for its first-ever session close above $2220 per ounce. In response, the oversold stock market of mining companies like Newmont and Sibanye Stillwater is trying to rebound
- Wall Street indexes are posting modest gains. The S&P 500 gains 0.1%, the Nasdaq100 loses 0.15%, and the Dow Jones is trading flat. The Russell is trading up 0.48%, but some of that has been erased
- Data from the U.S. economy was in the absolute spotlight of global markets today, and it came out favorably for both the Fed and Wall Street. PCE inflation fell to 2% versus 2.1% forecast and 2.1% previously. Long and short-term inflation expectations fell below 3%, and consumer sentiment turned out to be higher than expected; as did private consumption:
Macro data from the US
Final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for March: 79.4 vs. 76.5 forecasts and 76.5 previously
- Expectations UoM Index: 77.4 vs 74.7 forecasts and 74.6 previously
- Current Situation UoM Index: 82.5 vs 79.6 forecasts and 79.4 previously
5-year inflation expectations: 2.8% vs 2.9% forecasts and 2.9% previously
1-year inflation expectations: 2.9% vs 3.1% forecasts and 3% previously
House sales m/m: 1.6% vs 1.5% forecasts and -4.9% previously
- Pending home sales index: 75.6 vs 74.3 previously
Number of new jobless claims. Current: 210k Expected: 214k Previous: 210 thousand.
- Number of new unemployed (continuing data). Current: 1819 thousand Expected: 1815 thousand Previous: 1807 thousand.
GDP data from the U.S., for Q1 revised to 3.4% at an annualized rate from 3.2%.
- GDP deflator falls marginally higher at 1.7% with a preliminary 1.6%
Quarterly PCE inflation remains at 1.8% with 2.6% in the previous year's Q3. Core PCE falls at 2.0%, with 2.1% at the previous reading.
Consumption was revised upward to 3.3% on expectations of 3.0% and with the previous quarter at 3.1%
- Another regional reading from the US came in well below forecasts. The Kansas City Fed regional indicated -7 versus -3.5 forecasts and -4 previously. The Kansas industrial sub-index fell to -9 versus 3 previously. Earlier, we learned of a very weak publication of the regional Chicago PMI.Chicago regional PMI index: 41.4 vs 46 forecast and 44 previously
- GDP data from Canada came in higher than forecast. The preliminary monthly reading for January came in at 0.6% versus 0.4% forecast and 0% previously.
- Brent and WTI crude oil prices record a nearly 1.8% rally and are approaching levels not seen since the fall of 2023
- Gas inventories according to the EIA fell by 36 billion cubic feet (bcf) in the U.S. vs. -27 bcf forecast and 7 bcf increase previously
- Bitcoin gains nearly 2% today and hovers around $71,000, but Microstrategy shares lose more than 8%, following a report from long/short fund Kerrisdale Capital, which reported taking a short position on shares of Michael Saylor's company, indicating a high valuation
- Dogecoin gains nearly 15% on a wave of speculation surrounding the potential availability of the cryptocurrency in payments, on social network X
