Economic calendar: A lot of data from the US

Summary:

• US employment report draws the most of attention on Friday

• More readings from the US including manufacturing ISM and construction spending

• Manufacturing PMI from the UK and final releases from other European countries

9:30 am BST - UK manufacturing PMI: After the uptick seen in December the consensus suggests a moderate decline to 53.5 from 54.2 in January. However, the data should have rather a limited impact on the sterling as it keeps being driven by incoming Brexit developments.

10:00 am BST - preliminary inflation from the Eurozone: The data from Germany surprised to the downside in January therefore there is also a downside risk concerning today’s reading. Headline inflation is slated to have slowed down to 1.4% YoY from 1.6% YoY while core prices ought to stay at 1%.

1:30 pm BST - jobs report from the US: There is no doubt that the jobs report for January from the US economy will steal the show on Friday. The data offered by the ADP signals that we could be quite optimistic about the governmental release despite concerns that the government shutdown may have affected the labour market. Employment in the non-farm sector is forecast to rise by 165k after surging by 312k in December. Average hourly earnings should rise by 3.2% in annual pace, the same rate of growth was in December, and the unemployment rate should stay at 3.9%.

3:00 pm BST - manufacturing ISM, UoM, construction spending and wholesale inventories: A second set of the data from the US also deserves attention. The manufacturing ISM seems to be the most important one after we got a sharp decline in new orders last time. The major index is expected to have fallen subtly to 54 from 54.1. At the same time the final data regarding the University of Michigan index will also be released. The consensus suggests no change compared to the preliminary value. On top of that, the construction spending and wholesale inventories for November will be published. Having in mind that these are lagging indicator there should be a contained effect on either the dollar or the stock market.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

• 2:45 pm BST - Fed’s Kaplan