Summary:
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European PMIs will steal the show on Thursday
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UK retail sales will show how Brexit-related chaos affected consumers’ purchases
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Important data from the US on the agenda too
8:15/8:30/9:00 am GMT - PMIs from France/Germany/EMU: This point of today’s calendar is undoubtedly the most important one. In March we got an array of disappointing numbers from the manufacturing sector, this was especially true when it comes to Germany. Given the fact that PMIs in China improved last month one may hope that a similar trend will be observed across the old continent this month as well. Market expectations suggest slight increases compared to depressed PMIs from March.
9:30 am GMT - UK retail sales for March: We got labour and inflation data from the UK economy so fat this week. While the former showed still robust wage pressure amid the tight labour market, the latter turned out to be slightly sub-par. By and large, the data had a limited impact on the British pound and having in mind that Brexit seems to be a prevailing topic during the upcoming months, one may suppose that today’s retail sales should have only a short-lived effect on the pound. The consensus calls for a 0.3% MoM decline as for both headline and core (ex. auto fuel) sales.
1:30 pm GMT - US/Canadian retail sales: Core inflation from Canada we were offered on Wednesday surprised slightly to the upside, pushing the loonie a bit higher. Having scheduled the BoC meeting for next week one may think that it could matter for the central bank. In this regard today’s retail sales for February (a lagging indicator) may shed more light on domestic demand in Canada during the period of the global economic slowdown. The consensus points to a 0.4% MoM increase for headline and a 0.2% MoM increase for core sales. In turn, the consensus for US sales (for March) suggests a 0.7% MoM increase for ex-auto sales and a 1% MoM for advanced sales, being taken into GDP calculations. At the same time, a weekly jobless claims reading as well as the Philadelphia Fed index will be published.
2:45 GMT - US PMI: The US economy has performed better compared to many advanced economies in Europe in recent months. Hence, the US PMI remained well above the cut-off 50 points during the first quarter. The consensus for April indicates 52.8 points for manufacturing (slightly higher compared to March) and 55 points for services (slightly lower compared to March).
Central bankers’ speeches:
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5:10 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic
