Summary:
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DOE and OPEC reports may spur volatility on the oil market today
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Industrial production growth in the Euro area expected to decelerate further
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Grains traders beware as WASDE report will be released in the afternoon
Economic calendar on Thursday do not offer major market moving events at first glance. However, investors from the commodity market may find themselves pleased as some crucial reports will be released. Apart from regular DOE report, investors will be served monthly OPEC report on oil market. Moreover, WASDE report concerning grains market will see daylight at 5:00 pm BST. Last but not least, Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 7:00 pm BST so traders may want to take a look at this document ahead of the next monetary policy meeting scheduled on September 26.
10:00 am BST - Euro area, Industrial production for July. A slowdown in the EMU economy is visible not only when we take a look at soft indicators (for example PMIs). After peaking at 5.3% YoY in December 2017 industrial production growth in the euro area decelerated significantly. Reading for June showed just 2.5% YoY, much weaker print than most of the second half of 2017. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg agency point for a reading of 1% YoY in July. However, it should be noted that today’s reading will be subject to somewhat less favourable base effect than one released in previous month.
1:30 pm BST - US, PPI Inflation for August. While the US PPI inflation readings are not viewed as true market movers they gather attention due to the fact that they are usually released ahead of the CPI data. Market consensus suggests that the core gauge will move slightly higher, from 2.7% YoY to 2.8% YoY. On the other hand, the headline reading is expected to deteriorate from 3.3% YoY to 3.2% YoY. The CPI inflation data is scheduled to be released tomorrow.
3:30 pm BST - DOE report on oil inventories. Hurricane approaching the America's east coast and the Gulf of Mexico, where several oil industry facilities are located, as well as huge drop in inventories suggested by API yesterday boosted oil prices. Both Brent and WTI moved to the highest level in a week with the former trading not far below this year’s high. DOE report may provide additional support for bulls in case oil stocks fall by more than analysts expect (1 mb drop). Apart from that, oil traders may want to keep on guard around 12:20 pm BST as OPEC will release its Monthly Oil Market Report.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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9:30 am BST - Riksbank Governor Ingves
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2:40 pm BST - Fed’s Bullard
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5:45 pm BST - Fed’s Brainard
After failing to breach the resistance zone ranging 1.1720-1.1750 the main currency pair may have fallen into a short term downtrend. For now support at 1.1530 holds firm but in case EUR continues to weaken against USD bulls may struggle to resist sellers pressure. Source: xStation5
