Summary:
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PMI indices from Europe and the US to be released throughout the day
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UK services PMI seen dropping slightly
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US non-manufacturing ISM expected to show another decline
Tuesday’s calendar is dominated by releases of PMI indices. However, most of this prints will be revisions therefore any bigger fluctuations is unlikely to occur. Apart from that, investors will be offered a retail sales report from the euro area and the US non-manufacturing ISM index. Last but not least, weekly API report and a range of earnings releases round up the calendar.
Data from the euro area: services PMI (9:00 am GMT), retail sales (10:00 am GMT)
As the services PMI release will be a revision no major change is expected. The index should come in close to 50.8 pts seen in the initial print. Final reports from members countries will be released throughout the morning. Apart from that, December’s retail sales report will see daylight some time later and it has a chance to move EUR in case any major deviations from the median forecast is spotted. Market consensus expects an advance of 0.5% YoY and a decline of 1.6% MoM.
Data from the United Kingdom: Services PMI (9:30 am GMT)
GBP as well as all the other UK assets remain to be steered mostly be Brexit headlines and developments. Nevertheless, one should not forget about macroeconomic data, especially in the week when BOE will make its rate decision! Yesterday’s construction PMI reading missed expectations. Today’s services PMI is forecasted to come in slightly lower at 50.9 pts. However, any miss could spoil moods further.
Data from the United States: Services PMI (2:45 pm GMT), ISM Non-Manufacturing (3:00 pm GMT)
Just as it is the case for the euro area reading, the US services PMI scheduled for release today will be a revision. However, when it comes to the United States investors tend to look more closely at ISM indices. Non-manufacturing gauge for January will be released just 15 minutes after PMI readings and it is expected to drop from 58 pts to 57 pts. Note that last month we saw quite steep decline therefore any subsequent deterioration may push USD lower.
API report on oil inventories (9:40 pm GMT)
The latest price action on the oil market was lacklustre to say the least. Brent keeps hovering in the $60-63 trading range. A solid fundamental impulse may be needed to get commodity back on the upward track. Inventories data seldom provide such impulse but may be a trigger for short term price swings. Market consensus expects a build of 1.6 million barrel in the oil stockpiles.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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8:00 am GMT - Riksbank’s Ingves
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10:15 am GMT - Riksbank’s Jochnick
Major US companies reporting earnings today:
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Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.US)
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Allstate Corp (ALL.US)
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Centene (CNC.US)
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Walt Disney (DIS.US)
GBPUSD pulls back after failing to breach the 1.32-1.33 resistance zone. The pair is heading towards the 200-session moving average and GBP-negative data mix could help downward move gather pace. Source: xStation5
