- Indexes in Europe open in mixed moods
- Stock market investors await for US claims reading
- Inventories and wholesale sales in the US
There is actually one major reading on today's macro calendar that could affect market sentiment - the US unemployment claims, which will be published an hour before the Wall Street open. The data could shed more light on the current situation of the US labor market, and will be one of the important readings ahead of the Fed decision, which markets will know next week. On the one hand, a potentially strong low reading could keep markets confident in the continued strength of the US economy and increase the chance of further rate hikes. However probably the Fed rate hike cycle is coming to an end and strong macro data seems more favorable to the markets 'in the long run'. On the other hand, weaker claims data may suggest that the labor market situation could deteriorate sharply - increasing the chances of a recession and extinguishing the Fed's hike cycle. Macro deterioration ahead of the summer season could weigh on sentiment. A little more light on the momentum of the U.S. economy may also be shed by the U.S. inventory and wholesale sales data released today. This one could be a litmus test of sorts for business growth and consumer strength.
Today's claims reading may bring higher volatility for EURUSD and weigh on both - European and U.S. indices sentiments. Swaps are now fully pricing in a 25bp Fed hike in July, with most investors betting on no rate hike at the June meeting. European indices open today in mixed sentiment after an Asian session during which declines continued on Japan's Nikkei, with limited volatility on China's benchmarks and weakness on Korea's KOSPI.
10:00 BST - Eurozone GDP (revision). Expected: 1.2% Previously :1.8%
15:30 BST - US Claims. Expected: 235 k Previously: 232k
17:00 BST - US, Wholesale inventories. Expected: -0.2% m/m Previously: -0.2% m/m
Wholesale sales: Expected: 0.9% Previously: -2,1%
16:30 BST - EIA report on US natural gas inventories. Expected: 115 bcf Previously: 110 bcf
Central bankers speeches:
- 14:05 BST - SNB Thomas Jordan
- 20:25 BST - BoC Paul Beaudry
