Summary:
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Riksbank unlikely to change monetary policy settings
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Non-manufacturing ISM for August expected to rebound after July’s drop
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Market consensus points for bigger drop in oil inventories than API suggested
Investors can find some interesting and worth following readings in Thursday’s calendar. The ADP employment estimates will attract attention as they are released one day ahead of the NFP report. Apart from that, market participants will follow the publication of the non-manufacturing ISM to see whether it follow into manufacturing gauge’s footsteps. On top of that lets mention that the Bank of Russia Governor Elvira Nabiullina will give lecture on inflation targeting in Russia at IMF therefore monetary policy enthusiasts may want to tune in.
8:30 am BST - Riksbank interest rate decision. The recent data from the Swedish economy was rather weak. Both manufacturing and services PMI moved significantly lower and the retail sales print disappointed greatly. Having said that, inflation staying around Riksbank’s target may be not enough to justify change in monetary settings during today’s meeting. Money market gives 98.8% probability of leaving rates intact. One and half an hour after the announcement of decision (10:00 am BST) Riksbank Governor Ingves will hold a press conference.
1:15 pm BST - US, ADP Employment Change for August. As new month has begun investors will be offered labour market report from the US economy tomorrow. However, as it is usually the case the ADP will release its estimates of the employment change one day before NFP. Investors may use data provided by the ADP today to adjust their expectations concerning official report. Market consensus points for a 190k increase in employment in August (slightly below the average from recent months).
3:00 pm BST - US, Non-manufacturing ISM for August. After both ISM gauges dropped significantly in July some market participants were concerned whether the US economy can maintain its stellar pace of growth. However, the manufacturing ISM for August that was released on Tuesday shrugged off these worries as it jump to the highest level since 2004. Investors will follow the services gauge release to see whether moods in the biggest sector of the US economy will develop in the similar manner.
4:00 pm BST - DOE report on oil inventories. Oil prices moved lower recently after two weeks of rally fuelled by shrinking Iranian exports. The past few days saw commodity prices move lower what can be just a healthy correction. However, if today’s DOE report, that is expected to show 2.38 mb drop in inventories, confirms decline of just 1.2 mb signalled by API yesterday the pullback may deepen.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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12:45 pm BST - ECB’s Lautenschlaeger
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3:00 pm BST - Fed’s Williams
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4:00 pm BST - Bank of Russia Governor Nabiullina
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5:30 pm BST - SNB’s Zurbruegg
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7:30 pm BST - BoC’s Wilkins
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10:30 pm BST - RBNZ Governor Orr
OIL.WTI failed to break above the mid term resistance zone ranging $69.50-70.30. In turn price pulled back to the area where 8- and 21-session moving averages can be found. Today’s DOE oil stocks report may greatly impact short term movements. Source: xStation5
