Summary:
- German IFO index expected to decline further
- Headline retail sales from Canada forecasted flat in December
- Three Fed members to discuss balance sheet today
A few macroeconomic readings will be released on a final trading day of the week. Survey data from the German economy will take the spotlight in the morning while Canadian retail sales are the most important reading scheduled for the US trading hours. Apart from that, inflation report from euro area for January will be release at 10:00 am GMT but as it is a revision no major price moves are expected. Central bankers will be very active in the media today with the biggest attention being paid to appearances of Bullard, Harker and Quarles at 6:30 pm GMT. Three Fed members will discuss Reserve’s balance sheet.
9:00 am GMT - Germany, Ifo business climate for February. When it comes to the German survey data ZEW index is usually the thing that comes to mind first. However, it is also wise to follow IFO Institute data as it may offered complementing picture. Just as it is in case of ZEW indices, IFO gauges dropped significantly throughout 2018 as trade conflicts spoiled moods across entrepreneurs. No improvement can be spotted on the horizon as market consensus points for another weaker reading of 99 pts.
1:30 pm GMT - Canada, Retail sales for December. Data from the Canadian economy released this year was a bit mixed so far. Labour market outperformed and inflation was robust. On the other hand, somewhat disappointing data was presented by the manufacturing and retail sectors. However, more hawkish attitude of the BoC members eventually caused markets to favor CAD over USD. In turn USDCAD dropped over 3% YTD. Today’s retail sales data is expected to show headline reading being flat (0.0% MoM) and core gauge to drop 0.5% MoM.
Central bank speakers scheduled for today:
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1:15 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic
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3:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Villeroy de Galhau
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3:15 pm GMT - Fed’s Williams, Daly
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3:30 pm GMT - ECB President Draghi
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5:00 pm GMT - Fed’s Clarida
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5:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Potter
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6:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Bullard
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6:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Harker
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6:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Quarles
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10:30 pm GMT - Fed’s Williams
The Canadian dollar managed to regain ground against the USD in 2019. USDCAD is trading somewhat above the 200-session moving average and a strong retail sales reading could help the pair broke back below it. Source: xStation5
