Summary:
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Norges Bank is expected to leave rates on hold, but all eyes on guidance
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UK retail sales should bounce back in July
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Housing data from the US on the agenda this afternoon
While Turkey has dominated financial markets over the recent days one cannot forget about other events which could have much more far-reaching consequences for many classes of assets. One of this events is today’s meeting of the Norwegian central bank. In addition, we will get July’s retail sales from the UK as well as a package of numbers from the US housing market.
9:00 am BST - Norges Bank meeting: The Norwegian monetary authorities are expected to leave rates unchanged today but the major attention will be undoubtedly paid to forward guidance. The bank signalled at its latest meeting that a rate hike would be likely to occur as soon as September given the current balance of risks. Therefore, today’s meeting could be a final hint for traders. Note that the NOK has been pushed to the trough against the buck recently hence the long-awaited rate increase could be a remedy for the Scandinavian currency.
9:30 am BST - UK retail sales: July’s retail sales are expected to register a bounce to 0.2% in monthly terms following a 0.5% decline in the previous period. Yesterday we were offered inflation numbers which more or less turned out to be consistent with economists’ expectations. The pound keeps trading nearby its crucial support against the greenback, hence today’s data could be remarkably important. What’s more, it will be the first insight into the third quarter in terms of consumer spending.
1:30 pm BST - US housing data: Building permits are forecast to come in at 1310k compared to 1292k previously while housing starts ought to show a livelier increase to 1260k from 1173k registered in June. Even as readings from the housing market are not the most important ones for the US dollar or stocks (until they do not show any worrisome signals) they could provide us with information regarding the strong US dollar’s (and higher market rates) impact on house affordability.
The EURGBP is bouncing off its lower bound of the channel ahead of July’s retail sales from the UK economy. Source: xStation5
