Today's session has seen huge rallies in US gas, European TTF and its UK counterpart, gaining 5.11%, 20% and 21% respectively amid a tightening LNG market and signs of increasing demand in Asia.
Traders remain uncertain about the prospects of even lower crude supplies from Russia and competition with Asia for LNG, which will become a more lucrative import destination than the Old Continent in the coming months. According to BloombergNEF analysis, this state of affairs could last until the end of September 2023. Even so, it is worth remembering that stocks in Europe remain high, which has been sustained by a mild winter, large inventories and relatively weak demand.
Seasonality confirms that current TTF gas inventories remain at the upper end of the historical channel, which could act negatively on TTF valuations in the longer term. Source: Bloomberg
The number of gas rigs in the US has been severely reduced in recent weeks, which, despite high inventory levels, creates moderate concerns about the ability to meet possibly higher demand. Source: Bloomberg
NATGAS quotes today reached the upper limit set by the 50-, 100- and 200-day exponential moving averages (blue, purple and gold curves respectively). Source: xStation 5
