差价合约 (""CFDs"") 是复杂工具,并且由于杠杆作用而资本迅速亏损的风险很高。在与该提供商交易差价合约时,82%的零售投资者账户会亏钱。您应该考虑是否了解差价合约是如何运作的,以及您是否有能力承担损失金钱的高风险。

损失可能超过您的存款

Ichimoku patterns - COFFEE

下午4:26 2022年5月25日

Lockdowns in China and the Russia-Ukraine war remain the key downward risks of coffee demand. A recent report forecasts that the demand for coffee will decline by 25% and 50% in Russia and Ukraine respectively. Moreover, it predicts a shift from the recorded deficit of 5.1 million bags in the 2021/22 season to a surplus of 1.7 million bags in 2022/23. The expected surge in supply has driven prices down in the beginning of this new week. Eased concerns over frost in Brazil have also curbed coffee price gains.  Investors were concerned that the below-average temperatures  will result in intense crop damage.

Let's see if the Ichimoku analysis confirms these bearish fundamentals. 

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Ichimoku analysis :

As can be seen, the Ichimoku daily cloud has acted as resistance to every attempt at a bullish recovery. The highs and lows are getting lower and lower, confirming the ongoing downtrend. Moreover, a further break of the support at 210 (point B), could lead to an acceleration of the decline towards the Hosoda V projection at 183.50. 

Therefore, if the psychological level at 200 is breached, there is a good chance that coffee prices will confirm the aforementioned Hosoda projection.

COFFEE, D1 interval, Source : xStation5

 

When we take a look at the H4 chart, we can see that coffee prices are about to give a sell signal.  Indeed, prices are about to break out from the bottom of the cloud (green box) and this sell signal could be validated by the lagging span, which is also about to cross a last obstacle (yellow ellipse).  If this signal occurs and is validated by the lagging span, the bearish scenario we discussed above would be the base scenario. 

On the other hand, if the bulls regain control of the market and prices manage to break out of the top of the cloud at 216.25, they will have to tackle the resistance at 220.

COFFEE, h4  interval, Source : xStation5

 

Reda Aboutika, XTB France

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