- Yesterday's session on Wall Street was fueled by bulls. The Nasdaq100 gained 1.48%, the S&P 500 rose 0.8% and the Dow Jones rose a modest 0.17%. At the same time, 10-year treasuries rose slightly to 4,15% level. Today, the main reading the market is waiting for is the employment change from the US labor market (NFP), at 1:30 PM GMT
- Sentiments during the Asian session today were mixed. Japanese indices posted sizable declines, following a weaker-than-forecast revision of GDP, which contracted QoQ at a rate of 0.7% versus a 0.5% decline in the first reading. GDP deflator came in 5.3% y/y vs 5.1% in previously reading. The Topix and Nikkei recorded 1.5 and nearly 1.8% declines, respectively.
- Japanese household spending indicated a 0.1% m/m decline vs flat expectations and 0.3% growth previously. Average earnings in November rose at a 1.5% y/y pace, vs. 1% expectations and 1.2% growth the previous month. An economic survey of observers in Japan came in at 49.5 vs 49.1 forecasts and 49.5 previously
- The Hang Seng closed the session almost flat and has been in consolidation for several days after sizable declines. South Korea's KOSPI did great, managing to gain more than 1%. Australia's ASX was up 0.3%. New Zealand's manufacturing sales fell 2.7% y/y vs. 2.9% growth in the previous reading
- U.S. small business job creation rate rose 18% y/y according to NFIB vs. 17% in previous reading. Atlanta Fed's first estimate of U.S. GDP points to 1.2% growth in Q4
- U.S. and European index contracts are trading slightly higher, while EURUSD failed to stay above 1.08 and is trading down 0.07%. The major pair is trading at 1.0787, with the AUDUSD pair recording more than 0.2% gains
- Energy commodities, oil and natural gas, are trading up around 1.5%.
- The mood of the cryptocurrency market is positive. Bitcoin is trading at $43,500, and the consolidation of the major cryptocurrency after a period of strong gains is helping sentiment among altcoins
- After rollover, the VIX, a volatility index opened with a nearly 13% upward gap
- Fundstrat analysts see a chance for new historic highs for the S&P 500 in 2024, at, 5200 points level. They suggest a potential double-digit rally from current levels, in their view earnings per share are expected to rise an average of 11.3% and 8.3% in 2025, driven by cyclical factors
- Bank of America expects 5100 points on the S&P 500 in 2024, and expects weakness in the 'great tech seven' against other companies in the index. The analysts pointed out that all it would take for the p/e ratio of the 493 companies in the index to rise to the vicinity of 15x, for it to reach above 5,000 points. Even at such levels, on average, the remaining stocks in the index will be trading at levels below pandemic peaks
- A gap between the MOVE Index, which tracks US interest-rate volatility, and the VIX widens and suggest that rate markets can spark some stress for equities if Fed stance in 2024 will be more restrictive than expected
- The Nikkei reports that the value of annual trade between Russia and China reached $200 billion, reaching the 'milestone' a year earlier than planned
- Egypt has warned that the potential resolution of the Palestinian migration on its territory could significantly worsen relations between it and Israel
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