Summary:
- US30 crushes resistance, follows US500 towards all-time highs
- OIL on the rise again, watch out current resistance
- USDPLN tests a support as emerging markets recover
US30 is just 2% shy of all-time highs now that US500 has already broken the February top and flirts with 2900 points. Solid economic conditions in the US, decent earnings season and the latest NAFTA deal are all the reasons behind this rally while investors pay less attention to geopolitical tensions (rift with China and crisis in Turkey being on top of the agenda here). Technically a resistance zone just below 26k mark and then the mark itself have been broken so the bulls have been freed to try and assault the all-time record. We may see that US30 runs comfortably above 50 and 200 day averages so technically the bull market is well supported.
Breaking the 26000 points mark paved that way towards the all-time highs. Source: xStation5
Oil prices have seen a change of fortune lately, benefiting from an apparent decline in Iranian exports. Bear in mind that US sanctions on Iran will be restored on 4 November and buyers have until then to rearrange their supplies. Many of them has already done so and supply concerns have resurfaced along the way. While the oil rally lacks the momentum it had in the second half of 2017 or during the spring this year bulls managed to defend the key support zone just above the $70 mark for OIL. A rapid rebound of prices off that level confirms a shift from resistance to support. Bulls have now one more task – break through a descending upper limit of the correction channel.
OIL prices move close to a short-term resistance with a lot of momentum. Source: xStation5
Emerging markets have had a volatile August but some markets have fared better than others. The PLN is often said to have solid fundamentals including a well-balanced current account, moderate fiscal deficit and low inflation. The USDPLN has declined over 5% as emerging market crisis subsided and now the pair tests the key support zone around 3.65. A break lower could negate an upward trend that we’ve seen since April of this year.
A test of 3.65 will be very important for USDPLN. Source: xStation5
